We’ll continue to cover football throughout the offseason at TDS, but here are five starting pitchers with egregious ADPs as fantasy baseball drafts heat up. There’s also TV and movie talk at the end, if you’re into that sort of thing.
Cole Ragans (ADP = SP15 vs. DDD = SP5)
Ragans missed multiple months with a rotator cuff strain last season, so he likely carries even more risk than your average starting pitcher entering 2026. But all pitchers have injury concern, and Ragans has No. 1 fantasy starter upside should health cooperate. Ragans’ 4.67 ERA last season came with a 2.52 SIERA that would’ve led all qualified SPs by a wide margin - Tarik Skubal led the league with a 2.71 SIERA. Ragans’ .354 BABIP was way out of line with his career mark (.296), while his K% spiked to 38.1% - Skubal led qualified SPs at 32.2%. It was unquestionably a small sample, but Ragans was baseball’s best pitcher while on the mound last season.
Ragans looked healthy and was dominant over three starts to end last year, and he enters 2026 feeling “as good as he ever has.” He’s one season removed from throwing 186.1 innings, so there’s clear Cy Young upside. Ragans is being drafted as the SP15 in composite ADP, but he’s my SP5.
Kyle Bradish (ADP = SP22 vs. DDD = SP12)
It’s possible Bradish’s innings are limited a bit in 2026, but he should be fully healthy nearly 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Bradish pitched like a bona fide ace over six appearances after returning from a long layoff last season; his K-BB% (29.4), CSW% (34.4) and SIERA (2.63) would’ve led all qualified starters. Is that good? Bradish will regress some, but those underlying metrics shouldn’t belong to a player being drafted outside the top 20 SPs. There’s been plenty of hype with Bradish, but it hasn’t quite translated to draft rooms.
Bradish owns a 2.78 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a 268:69 K:BB ratio over 240 innings since 2023, and he enters 2026 healthy. Bradish pitches in a crazy tough division, but his odds (40/1) to win Cy Young are too long. Give me Bradish over Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown straight up, and he’s going three/four rounds later.
Chase Burns (ADP = SP34 vs. DDD = SP24)
Burns missed time with a flexor strain last season, although it’s possible it was a phantom injury to limit his innings (he resumed throwing shortly thereafter). He looked healthy after returning, although Burns worked exclusively out of the bullpen to finish last season. He enters 2026 as arguably the biggest boom/bust fantasy pitcher. While there’s a clear health risk with the hard throwing righty, there’s also huge potential.
Burns’ 4.57 ERA last season came with a 2.76 SIERA and a 27.1 K-BB% that would’ve been behind only Skubal among qualified starters. In fact, only Spencer Strider and Stephen Strasburg have posted a higher K-BB% as rookies since 2000. OOPSY projects Burns to post the fourth lowest ERA (2.96) among starters this season, when he also plans to add a changeup.
Great American Ballpark is a big negative, but Burns’ upside is leading MLB in strikeouts; he has more double-digit K games over eight starts than Paul Skenes has over his career (h/t Scott White). Burns is the SP34 in composite ADP, but he’s my SP24 (he’s the SP25 in recent NFBC OC drafts, for what it’s worth).
Emmet Sheehan (ADP = SP44 vs. DDD = SP25)
Sheehan’s dominant minor league numbers translated to the majors last season after he returned from hybrid Tommy John surgery. The procedure involved an internal brace like Spencer Strider, but Sheehan’s also included a full UCL reconstruction (Bradish underwent the same hybrid procedure). Sheehan looked like an ace after coming back last year, posting a 23.0 K-BB% that would’ve been fourth among qualified starters and a 3.20 SIERA that would’ve ranked sixth. He got even better as the season progressed, recording a 1.11 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP with 45 Ks over 32.1 innings during his final six outings.
The Dodgers could theoretically go with a six-man rotation at times, but injuries are sure to strike, and pitching for Los Angeles will be a huge help in the wins category. Sheehan is the SP44 in composite ADP, but he's my SP25.
Trey Yesavage (ADP = SP35 vs. DDD = SP28)
Yesavage posted the second best CSW% (34.3) among starters during his limited action after getting called up with the Blue Jays. He was even better in the playoffs, when he recorded a 2.62 SIERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a 25.7 K-BB% over 27.2 innings. These are small samples, but his six appearances in the playoffs came against the top three offenses in wRC+ last season (Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners). The first-round pick flew through the minors before his epic late run, posting the highest minor league strikeout rate (41.1%) over the last 20 years (min 80 IP).
Yesavage’s spring has been a bit delayed as Toronto builds him up deliberately following a considerable workload jump in 2025, and the Blue Jays plan to manage his innings throughout the season. Still, 160 seem within reach after throwing 139.2 last year, so Yesavage’s modest ADP is surprising considering his recent performance in the spotlight. I prefer targeting pitchers with elite skills and not overly worrying about innings, especially when so many will get injured anyway.
What’s DDD watching
“Industry” is the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 show in my 2026 TV year-end list. Seasons one and two were good, but three and four have been great if not phenomenal ... “Tell Me Lies” won’t win any Emmy Awards, but few shows I looked forward to more each week (despite not necessarily sticking the landing). It also might have the best music on TV … Speaking of fun popcorn binges, “His & Hers” also qualifies … I didn’t love the season finale of “Fallout,” but it turned in another very strong season … “Free Bert” was funnier and better than expected, while “The Scream Murder” is worth checking out if you’re into true crime docs … I couldn’t get into “House of the Dragon,” so I decided to pass on “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” despite being a big fan of “Game of Thrones.” However, I’m giving AKOTSK a chance after seeing an overwhelming amount of hype. Time to binge!
As for movies, “The Rip” delivered on its expectations, while “Send Help” exceeded them. Meanwhile, “It Was Just an Accident” remains my favorite foreign movie from 2025 after finally seeing “No Other Choice” and “The Secret Agent.”
