Quarterback Starts
Trevor Lawrence @ Indianapolis Colts
Lawrence has been fantasy’s QB1 over the last two weeks, and he should continue to finish the season strong Sunday. It took a while, but Lawrence is thriving in Liam Coen’s system, and he also has the third most rushing scores (seven) among quarterbacks. It’s possible we are finally getting the prince we were promised. This indoors matchup should be fast-paced and will feature a ton of volume with both defenses pass-funnels. Lawrence is my QB5 this week.
Brock Purdy vs. San Francisco 49ers
Purdy has tossed eight touchdowns over two games while looking much healthier following San Francisco’s bye. Sunday night’s matchup is tied for the league’s highest total (52.5 points) this week, and Purdy will continue carrying a shaky 49ers’ defense and running game. Purdy has gotten 9.0 YPA at home during his career, and he’s my QB7 this week.
Jacoby Brissett @ Cincinnati Bengals
Brissett finally disappointed fantasy managers last week, as he struggled (-13.6% CPOE) and didn’t see his usual volume thanks in part to the Falcons having four 10+ play drives. He’ll get an opportunity to rebound against a Cincinnati defense allowing the second most passing scores (31) and the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Brissett has been the QB8 since taking over despite last week’s dud, remarkably ranking third in the league in end-zone pass attempts (37) over just 10 starts. He’ll benefit from a matchup with the highest total (53.5 points) in Week 17. Brissett is my QB9.
Running Back Starts
Rhamondre Stevenson @ New York Jets
Stevenson played all but one snap after TreVeyon Henderson left with a concussion last week. Assuming Henderson misses Sunday’s game, Stevenson looks like a borderline RB1 against the Jets. New York has been gashed for the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks despite just facing a New Orleans team down to its RB4.
The Jets have been one of the worst run defenses since trading Quinnen Williams, and their opponents own the league’s third highest rush rate. The Patriots sport a healthy total (28.5 points), and game-script should be favorable with New England huge favorites (-13.5). Stevenson is my RB10 (assuming Henderson sits) this week, ahead of Travis Etienne Jr.
Jaylen Warren @ Cleveland Browns
Warren loses passing down work and remains in a timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell, but Pittsburgh utilizes its running backs more than any team in football. Moreover, DK Metcalf will miss Sunday’s game, so Warren will be busy. Cleveland has been getting destroyed on the ground since Maliek Collins went down, allowing the fourth most schedule-adjusted rush fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks. Warren is my RB18.
Tony Pollard vs. New Orleans Saints
Pollard has surpassed 100 rushing yards three straight games, including becoming just the second running back to do so versus Kansas City this season last week. Pollard’s day would’ve been bigger, but he was tackled at the one-yard line and also lost rushing scores to Tyjae Spears and to a silly penalty. Cam Ward has thrown multiple scores in three straight games after failing to do so over his first 12, as Tennessee’s offense is improving. The Titans are small underdogs (+2.5 points), so game-script shouldn’t be an issue. Pollard is my RB25 this week.
Wide Receiver Starts
Jakobi Meyers @ Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence has an 8:0 TD:INT ratio over the last two weeks, and he’s playing at the highest level of his career. Sunday’s matchup could turn into a shootout, as both teams have pass-funnel defenses; the Colts have allowed the second fewest YPC (3.8) but the third most fantasy points to wide receivers. Meyers routinely sees opportunities inside the 10, and Lawrence has attempted the third most end-zone targets (37) this season. Meyers is my WR16 this week.
Wan’Dale Robinson @ Las Vegas Raiders
Robinson is coming off a fantasy dud in a tough matchup against a Vikings’ defense that has allowed just one passing touchdown over their last seven games. Robinson has been fantasy’s WR22 in PPR scoring this season, and there’s hope Jaxson Dart throws more Sunday facing a Las Vegas defense that struggles to pressure the quarterback (and might be missing Maxx Crosby). Robinson is my WR26.
Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts came out slinging it Monday night, and Indy’s passing attack is far from dead despite grandpa Philip Rivers starting. Alec Pierce had a big game last week, but Pittman (and Tyler Warren) could do the same Sunday. The Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points to outside wide receivers this season and are the NFL’s most extreme pass-funnel defense. Jacksonville’s opponents own the league’s highest pass rate (64.7%), and no running back has reached even 75 rushing yards against them this season. The Colts are near touchdown underdogs, so volume should be there for Pittman. He’s my WR31.
Sits & Fades
Marvin Harrison Jr. @ Cincinnati Bengals
Harrison saw 50% of the snaps and had a 61% route share while playing through his heel injury last week. He’ll likely be limited again Sunday in a matchup against a Cincinnati defense that’s quieted WR1s this season. DJ Turner will likely shadow Harrison, and the Bengals have yielded the third fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks. Trey McBride should go off Sunday, but Harrison is a bench candidate.
Quentin Johnston vs. Houston Texans
Johnston had a big performance against Dallas during his return last week, but he gets a far more difficult matchup Sunday. Houston has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and QJ will see a lot of coverage from shutdown corner Derek Stingley Jr. Moreover, the Texans’ pass rush could wreak havoc on LA’s offensive line, preventing Justin Herbert from many downfield attempts. Johnston belongs on fantasy benches during championship week.
Rico Dowdle vs. Seattle Seahawks
Dowdle’s snap share crept closer to 50/50 with Chuba Hubbard last week, and he gets a stout Seattle run defense Sunday. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, and running backs have totaled just one touchdown over the last five games versus Seattle (and that includes matchups against Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor and the Rams). The Panthers have a lowly 17.5-point team total, so Dowdle is a fade if possible.
Justin Herbert vs. Houston Texans
Herbert was fantasy’s QB4 last week in Dallas, but he’s a sit candidate against Houston. Only one passer has finished as a top 12 QB in a week when facing the Texans this season. Houston has allowed an NFL-low 6.3 YPA, and this matchup sports a total of just 39.5 points. Expect a defensive battle in Los Angeles this week, which will limit fantasy production.
