Quarterback Starts
Jared Goff vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Goff has averaged 8.9 YPA over the last three games, and the Lions rank second in neutral pace since Dan Campbell started calling plays. Goff gets a bump at home, and Detroit sports the league’s highest total (30.5 points) by a wide margin this week. Goff is my QB7.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Atlanta Falcons
Brissett has been fantasy’s QB4 since taking over in Week 6 with the help of a ton of volume. He’s averaged a staggering 48.4 dropbacks during nine starts, and the Cardinals lead the league in neutral pass rate by a mile over the last month. Brissett gets an Atlanta defense that’s shut down the run but has allowed the fourth most schedule-adjusted QB fantasy points over the last five weeks. He just scored the most fantasy points by a quarterback against the Texans this season and might get Marvin Harrison Jr. back. Brissett is my QB8 this week.
Justin Herbert @ Dallas Cowboys
Herbert hasn’t thrown 30 passes in a game since Week 10, but more volume should be there Sunday. The Cowboys’ run defense has improved since trading for Quinnen Williams, who returned to practice Thursday. However, Dallas has allowed an NFL-high 31 passing scores this season and the third most schedule-adjusted QB fantasy points over the last five weeks. Herbert had 10 rush attempts two weeks ago, so he’s shown a willingness to run while playing through his hand injury. The Cowboys will score points at home, pushing the Chargers to throw more than usual. Herbert is my QB10 this week, ahead of Bo Nix.
Running Back Starts
Aaron Jones Sr. @ New York Giants
Jones will lose carries to Jordan Mason, but he dominates passing work and gets a highly favorable matchup Sunday. The Giants field the league’s worst run defense, as New York is allowing an NFL-high 5.6 YPC and the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. The Vikings are favorites and want to hide their quarterback, so Jones should get touches in a positive game-script. He’s my RB20 this week.
Michael Carter vs. Atlanta Falcons
Carter dominated Arizona’s backfield after Bam Knight went down on his first carry of the game last week, including seeing 100% of the inside the 10 rush attempts. Emari Demercado could see more work Sunday during his second game back from injury, but Carter should be the Cardinals’ lead back with Knight sidelined. Arizona sports a healthy team total (23.5 points), and game-script shouldn’t get out of hand facing Atlanta. Carter is my RB25.
Kenneth Gainwell @ Detroit Lions
Gainwell has been fantasy’s RB12 since Week 12, and he has the fourth most catches (28) in the league over the last five weeks. Aaron Rodgers wants to play slow, but Pittsburgh should see more play volume than usual in a matchup indoors against a Detroit offense projected to score 30+ points. Gainwell has become a big part of the Steelers’ offense, and he’s seen 10 opportunities inside the red-zone over the last two weeks. He’s my RB26 this week, ahead of Ashton Jeanty.
Wide Receiver Starts
DK Metcalf @ Detroit Lions
Metcalf’s usage has been disappointing this season, but he should see increased targets Sunday. Detroit is a pass-funnel defense yielding the third fewest RB fantasy points but the second most to wide receivers. A banged-up Lions’ secondary has allowed the second most YPA (9.1) and the highest explosive pass rate since Week 12. Metcalf is my WR13 this week.
Jayden Reed @ Chicago Bears
Christian Watson may be able to play Saturday night, but Reed could still see increased volume with Josh Jacobs iffy. Moreover, the Bears have ceded by far the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the slot over the last five weeks, where Reed has run 72% of his routes. He’s my WR26 this week, ahead of Wan’Dale Robinson.
Ladd McConkey @ Dallas Cowboys
McConkey has been the WR72 over the last five weeks, but he’s in a terrific spot to bounce back Sunday. Dallas has been gashed for the third most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks, including the second most to the slot (where McConkey has run 64% of his routes). Most importantly, the Cowboys should put up points at home, forcing Los Angeles to throw. McConkey is my WR21, ahead of Jaylen Waddle.
DJ Moore vs. Green Bay Packers
Moore and Colston Loveland get significant boosts with both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out Saturday night. The Bears will attempt to go run-heavy, but Moore should be busy with D’Andre Swift also banged up. The Packers have allowed the most fantasy points over expected to wide receivers over the month, and Caleb Williams owns an 11:1 TD:INT ratio over six home games this year. Moore is my WR23.
Sits & Fades
Ashton Jeanty @ Houston Texans
Jeanty has finished as a top 30 fantasy back just once over his last five games, and he gets a tough matchup in Houston this week. The Texans have allowed only 73.3 RB rushing yards per game, and Jeanty has averaged a paltry 3.2 YPC on the road as a rookie. Jeanty can clearly play, and he has a bright future, but his circumstances are destroying his fantasy value; the Raiders have the league’s lowest team total of the season this week (11.5 points!). He’s a bench candidate if possible.
Tony Pollard vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pollard has looked great and has been fantasy’s RB4 over the last two weeks, but his schedule gets far more difficult Sunday. The Chiefs have allowed a running back to reach 70 rushing yards just once since Week 4. Only James Cook has reached 90 rushing yards versus Kansas City this season. It’s possible the Chiefs mail it in with their playoff hopes gone, but the Titans are underdogs with a lowly 17.5-point total this week. Fade Pollard.
Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Minnesota Vikings
Robinson has been one of the best waiver-wire adds of the season, but he gets a Minnesota defense that hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown over its last five games, when only one wide receiver has reached 50 yards over that span. The Vikings have also yielded the second fewest fantasy points to the slot over the last month, where Robinson has run 67% of his routes. Robinson is the WR23 in the consensus ranks, but he should be treated more like a WR3 this week.
Emeka Egbuka @ Carolina Panthers
Egbuka fell to a 62% route share with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back last week, and the latter’s role should grow Sunday during his second game returning from injury. Egbuka has been fantasy’s WR47 since Week 6, and he’s suddenly in a crowded situation. Baker Mayfield has struggled mightily over the last two months, and Evans immediately looked like Tampa Bay’s alpha last week. Egbuka is a shaky start.
