Quarterback Starts
Jordan Love @ Detroit Lions
Love is a must-start during a fast-paced indoors matchup with the highest total (53.5 points) of the week. Josh Jacobs will likely be limited if he returns, so passing volume should be there against a Lions’ defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Love returned to a full practice Thursday, and he’s my QB2 this week.
C.J. Stroud vs. New York Giants
Stroud has bounced back in a big way this season, recording the seventh best Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (7.54) and a 9:1 TD:INT ratio. He was drafted as the QB22 in composite ADP, but he’s been fantasy’s QB6 since Nico Collins returned in Week 4. Stroud has played better on the road this season, but he’s historically seen a significant boost in fantasy production at home.
The Texans suddenly look loaded at wide receiver with Marvin Harrison Jr. arriving, Tank Dell returning and Jaylin Noel breaking out. Stroud leads the NFL in CPAE (+7.7 percent) as well as catchable air yards. He’s a top 10 fantasy QB versus a Giants’ defense ceding the 10th most QB fantasy points.
Bryce Young vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Some questioned Carolina’s decision to bring back Young as the team’s starter this season, but he’s been arguably the most improved player in football. He’s already thrown for 275+ yards in more games (five) this season than his previous three years in the league combined (four). Young ranks sixth in ANY/A (7.55), and he’s remarkably been fantasy’s QB4. Young is a top 10 QB this week against the pass-funnel Tampa Bay defense; Buccaneers’ opponents own the league’s third highest pass rate (62.3%) this season.
Running Back Starts
Jaylen Warren @ New Orleans Saints
Warren didn’t see the same full workload with Rico Dowdle back last week, but he remained Pittsburgh’s clear lead back, including getting the Steelers’ lone goal-line carry. Warren gets a much easier matchup this week against a Saints’ defense that’s allowed an NFL-high 11 rushing touchdowns and the most fantasy points to running backs this season. Treat Warren as a top 10 RB this week.
Woody Marks vs. New York Giants
Marks saw a 78% snap share and 18-of-25 RB opportunities with David Montgomery out last week, when he and Jawhar Jordan became the first players to reach 40 rushing yards against the Jaguars this season. Jordan was placed on IR, so Marks is a strong fantasy start this week in a more favorable matchup. The Texans are double-digit home favorites against a Giants’ team allowing the second-most YPC (5.0) and the eighth most schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points. Marks is a borderline top 15 RB this week.
Ollie Gordon @ New York Jets
Gordon has looked like one of the league’s best running backs since De’Von Achane suffered a season-ending knee injury early in Week 3. Gordon has been fantasy’s RB11 over that span despite facing a difficult schedule. He’s averaged 5.2 YPC and owns the fifth best EPA/attempt since Achane went down while playing for winless Miami. Gordon also ranks second in yards after contact per attempt (2.93) over that timeframe while clearly separating himself from Jaylen Wright.
Gordon gets pulled during obvious passing downs, but he’s the clear favorite at the goal line. Gordon has emerged as Miami’s clear lead back capable of overcoming a poor situation. Game-script shouldn’t get out of hand Sunday facing the Jets and coming out of the bye; Gordon is a top 20 fantasy back this week.
Wide Receiver/Tight End Starts
Jaylen Waddle @ Arizona Cardinals
Waddle has been a fantasy bust this season, but he’s in a prime spot to finally produce this week. The Cardinals have yielded NFL-highs in YPA (8.6) and passing touchdowns (16) as well as the most fantasy points over expected to wide receivers this season. Waddle has been the WR18 in air yards share and the WR23 in first-read target share, so his role has been healthy. Bo Nix has been a disaster coming off another ankle surgery, but Waddle looks like a top 30 WR this week thanks to the matchup.
Chris Godwin Jr. @ Carolina Panthers
Godwin would see a boost and become startable should Emeka Egbuka sit this week. Baker Mayfield won’t be 100 percent, but his likely return to the lineup could be an upgrade for Tampa Bay’s pass catchers as well. Moreover, Godwin could be fed this week to increase his trade value. Start Godwin if Egbuka is out.
Germie Bernard @ New Orleans Saints
Bernard ranks top 12 in WR fantasy points, target share and yards per route run over the last two weeks, and he’ll remain a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense. Bernard’s role/production is admittedly scammy while featured at the line of scrimmage, but it should continue to pay off in PPR after earning Aaron Rodgers’ trust. The rookie is a top 25 WR during a matchup indoors this week.
Tucker Kraft @ Detroit Lions
Kraft has disappointed this year, but he gets a dream matchup Sunday. Tight ends have gashed the Lions for the most targets, catches, receiving yards and touchdowns this season. Safety Brian Branch will likely return Sunday, but Kraft is a borderline top five fantasy tight end in a matchup with this week’s highest total (53.5 points) and Green Bay’s top three wide receivers all limited in practice Thursday.
Sits & Fades
Patrick Mahomes @ Seattle Seahawks
Mahomes was having a nice fantasy season before last week’s quiet game, and his YPA has rebounded to 8.3 with OC Matt Nagy no longer around to prevent cheat codes like play action. However, Mahomes gets a tough matchup in Seattle this week, as the Seahawks have allowed NFL-lows in YPA (5.2) and passing yards per game (156.8). Seattle has also yielded the second fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the Chiefs own a modest team total (19.5 points) that matches the Browns. Mahomes is a borderline QB1 against the league’s best pass defense, with Young, Stroud, Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers superior alternatives this week.
Tre Tucker vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tucker was fantasy’s WR2 last week, but he’s a bench candidate against a Rams’ secondary allowing the second fewest YPA (5.8). Los Angeles has yielded the fifth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, with only one surpassing 50 receiving yards this season (and none eclipsing 80). Rams’ opponents own the league’s fifth lowest pass rate (51.9%). Tucker is the WR30 in consensus ranks this week but search for alternatives if possible.
Keenan Allen & Josh Downs @ Minnesota Vikings
Allen and Downs will see increased targets if Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce remain out, but both wideouts get an incredibly difficult matchup. The blitz-heavy Vikings have ceded an NFL-low three touchdown passes this season and the fourth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Moreover, Daniel Jones has regressed to the extreme this season, getting a paltry 5.9 YPA and his GM fired. Fade Allen and Downs in a slow-paced matchup this week.