Quarterback Starts
Tyler Shough @ New York Giants
Shough is coming off a nightmare game, but it came against a Vikings’ defense allowing the fewest QB fantasy points by a significant margin. Shough has been a huge beneficiary of volume, but the Saints ran just 43 plays last week, which were the third fewest by any team this season. Shough is the QB1 in expected fantasy points this year, and he gets a Giants’ defense allowing the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this week.
Kirk Cousins vs. Buffalo Bills
Cousins is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season, but he returns home in a much more favorable matchup Sunday. The Bills have allowed the fourth most QB fantasy points and passing touchdowns (13) this season; Buffalo’s opponents have the league’s eighth highest pass rate (60.6%). Cousins threw 11 touchdowns over the first four weeks, and volume should be there in a matchup with the highest total (53.5 points) of any game this week.
Jameis Winston vs. New Orleans Saints
Winston has been fantasy’s QB6 over the last two weeks, and he’s averaged the second most drop backs per game since taking over for Jaxson Dart. He’ll continue to benefit from Malik Nabers and a favorable matchup Sunday; the Saints have ceded 7.5 YPA this season. Winston can be started if needed this week.
Running Back Starts
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. New York Jets
Stevenson is playing through a knee injury, but he should see an increased role Sunday with TreVeyon Henderson either out or compromised by a high-ankle sprain. Corey Kiner would see some work if Henderson sits, but Stevenson is trusted in pass protection and would get all the touches he can handle. The Patriots are more than touchdown favorites at home against a Jets’ team allowing the ninth most RB fantasy points. Stevenson profiles as a must start this week.
Cam Skattebo vs. New Orleans Saints
Skattebo’s role hasn’t been nearly as good this season, and he’s coming off a game in which he lost a fumble in overtime with the Giants in field goal range. However, he should remain New York’s lead back and has a favorable home matchup this week. New Orleans has been gashed for the most RB rush yards (133.4 per game!), TD runs and fantasy points by a wide margin. Winson is playing better, so Skattebo should be in fantasy lineups this week.
Tony Pollard @ Indianapolis Colts
Pollard gets a favorable setup during a fast-paced matchup in Indianapolis this week after facing a couple of tough run defenses. The Colts have yielded 5.0 YPC and the sixth most fantasy points to running backs this season. Pollard has been the RB22 in expected fantasy points per game; he’s seen the 11th most touches (18) inside the red zone, more than Christian McCaffrey. Tyjae Spears missed Thursday’s practice with a knee injury, so treat Pollard as a top 20 RB this week.
Wide Receiver/Tight End Starts
Devaughn Vele @ New York Giants
New Orleans’ volume should bounce back after a difficult matchup in Minnesota last week. The Saints ran just 43 plays on offense against the Vikings, but the Giants are a friendlier opponent Sunday. Vele is the WR24 in expected fantasy points per game this season, and this could turn into a shootout.
Wan’Dale Robinson @ Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to outside wide receivers this season but the third most to the slot, where Robinson has run 76% of his routes. He’ll benefit from a fast-paced matchup indoors Sunday.
Germie Bernard @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bernard led all Pittsburgh wide receivers in snaps, routes run, and targets last week. The rookie should have a big role Sunday with Roman Wilson and Michael Pittman out. Moreover, Tampa Bay has ceded the second-fewest RB rushing yards per game (60.0), while the Steelers have surprisingly averaged the seventh most pass plays (41.4) this season. Bernard is the rare rookie who’s seemingly gained Aaron Rodgers’ trust and should be treated as a WR3 in fantasy this week.
Tucker Kraft vs. Dallas Cowboys
Kraft has been a big fantasy disappointment as the TE19 over the first five weeks, but his role has been encouraging as the TE7 in expected fantasy points per game. The Packers own the league’s worst rushing attack and have greatly condensed their target tree as expected; Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Kraft have seen a combined 59 percent of the targets since Jayden Reed went down, and it’s safe to expect that to increase.
Kraft’s playing time should continue to grow the further removed he is from knee surgery, and he gets a prime matchup Sunday night; the Cowboys have allowed 8.3 YPA and a 10:0 TD:INT ratio this year.
Sits & Fades
Jacory Croskey-Merrit @ San Francisco 49ers
Croskey-Merritt recorded a 31-yard touchdown during his first carry last week, but he finished with zero targets and just a 35% snap share; Rachaad White saw 92 percent of the snaps during the fourth quarter and overtime during his return to the lineup. JCM loses passing down work to White and Austin Ekeler, and his Success Rate is in the 19th percentile. The return of Jayden Daniels helps open lanes, but game-script could be a problem Monday night with Washington more than touchdown underdogs. JCM missed Thursday’s practice with a groin injury, so Bill is a bench candidate this week.
Omarion Hampton @ Kansas City Chiefs
It gives no pleasure to continue suggesting benching a player who had a 16.6 overall composite ADP, but Hampton has been fantasy’s RB38 over the last three weeks, which is just a hair better than Ty Johnson. Hampton finished with a lowly 32 percent snap share last week, when he ran only two routes. Hampton owns the NFL’s second lowest YPC during zone runs since the start of last season, and the Chargers are calling them at a top 10 rate this year.
Running back is thin with byes and injuries, so Hampton is the RB26 in consensus ranks this week, but fantasy managers are relying on a touchdown; the Chiefs have allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game (69.0) to running backs this season, and Hampton is the RB50 in targets per game (1.2). Los Angeles owns the league’s lowest team total at just 16.5 points this week. What a disaster.