Quarterback Starts
Tyler Shough vs. Atlanta Falcons
Shough ranks first in pass attempts and fifth in designed run rate, making him the QB1 in expected fantasy points. Shough doesn’t have to be efficient to rack up fantasy points in a fast-paced Kellen Moore system, and he gets a home matchup against a pass-funnel Atlanta defense this week; the Falcons have allowed an NFL-low 2.8 YPC, and Atlanta’s opponents own the league’s highest pass rate (72.2%) by a significant margin. Shough is an easy top 10 QB yet again this week.
Bryce Young vs. Detroit Lions
Young leads the NFL in passing yards to open the season, and he has a favorable home matchup this week; the Lions have yielded the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. There’s some concern of rain during Sunday night’s game, but the total (50.5 points) suggests a shootout, especially with Carolina recently losing both of its starting corners. Jalen Coker returned to practice Thursday, further solidifying Young as a starter this week.
C.J. Stroud vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stroud is coming off a poor game, but volume and missing Nico Collins were to blame. Collins is expected back this week, when the Texans return home; Stroud’s YPA has jumped a full yard while his fantasy production has seen a +26% boost when playing in Houston throughout his career. The Cowboys have ceded the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year despite a league-low pass rate (44.6%) against. The Texans struggle to run and will face arguably the NFL’s worst pass defense in a matchup with a 48.5-point total. Stroud is a sneaky play this week.
Running Back Starts
Aaron Jones Sr. vs. Miami Dolphins
There’s admittedly some risk relying on Jones to act as a workhorse for the third straight game with Jordan Mason still on IR, but he won’t require 20 touches to post a big fantasy game against the Dolphins. Miami has been gashed for the most RB fantasy points to open the season, and game-script should be highly favorable with Minnesota 10.5-point home favorites. Kevin O’Connell may want to hide a shaky Kyler Murray, and Justin Jefferson may sit while dealing with an ankle injury, so Jones should benefit in a prime setup this week.
Braelon Allen @ Chicago Bears
Allen saw every snap over New York’s final two drives after Breece Hall left last week’s game, when he had six of his seven touches. Allen has played 84-of-88 snaps without Hall on the field this season, as Isaiah Davis has been limited to special teams. Allen has been far better than Hall after contact this year, and the Jets have a dramatically improved offense and defense. Chicago has given up the second-most YPC (5.1) over the first three games and has a bottom tier run defense, so treat Allen as a top 20 RB this week.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Indianapolis Colts (London)
Croskey-Merritt had a long rushing touchdown called back last week, when he led Washington’s backfield while rookie Kaytron Allen was limited to special teams. JCM is looking at increased touches Sunday with Rachaad White injured in a plus matchup. The Colts have allowed 4.9 YPC and the sixth most fantasy points to running backs this season. Croskey-Merritt upgrades to an RB2 this week.
Wide Receiver Starts
Josh Downs @ Washington Commanders (London)
Downs had an 8-4-72 line over the first 20 minutes of last week’s game but just one catch for five yards afterward. Still, Downs finished with a team-high 11 targets and a career-high 172 air yards. He sports incredibly encouraging underlying numbers across the board and looks like a potential top 20 fantasy WR with Alec Pierce out. Washington has allowed by far the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so Downs should be locked in fantasy lineups.
Jordan Addison vs. Miami Dolphins
Addison acted as Minnesota’s clear WR1 after Jefferson departed early from last week’s game, finishing as fantasy’s WR12 despite Murray missing him wide-open on a would-be 75-yard TD. Murray has struggled since last season, but the Dolphins have allowed the second-most YPA (9.1) and are the only team in the NFL without a sack. Addison upgrades to a WR2 if Jefferson is out this week.
Terry McLaurin vs. Indianapolis Colts (London)
McLaurin has been the equivalent to fantasy’s WR8 over his last five games with Marcus Mariota as starter. He’ll cede targets to Stefon Diggs, but McLaurin will benefit from facing an Indianapolis secondary allowing 8.8 YPA; the Colts have given up the 10th most WR fantasy points despite coming off a game against the Texans without Nico Collins. McLaurin is a strong start this week.
Sits & Fades
Omarion Hampton @ Seattle Seahawks
Hampton saw just one target last week, when he was also removed from multiple goal-line situations. Hampton finished with just a 42% snap share while running only six routes; he appears to be a poor fit for Mike McDaniel’s zone-heavy scheme while in a timeshare with Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal on an offense that ranks third worst in points per drive.
Hampton would benefit should Mitchell sit with an ankle injury that’s limited him in practice, but only the Dolphins and Titans have lower implied team totals than the Chargers (16.5 points) this week. The Seahawks enter with a dominant run defense that’s yielded just 3.3 YPC and the fifth fewest RB fantasy points; no running back has surpassed 51 rushing yards against Seattle through three games. Hampton unfortunately downgrades to RB3 territory and is a bench candidate this week.
Emeka Egbuka vs. Green Bay Packers
Egbuka has once again been one of the league’s unluckiest wide receivers this season, when he ranks bottom three in catchable target rate. Undrafted Jalon Daniels will be his new starting QB with Baker Mayfield sidelined; Daniels had 117 carries and 319 pass attempts during his final year in college, so volume will be an issue. Maybe a change in quarterbacks will help Egbuka, but he’s scored 12+ PPR fantasy points in just one of his last 15 games. Egbuka is a shaky fantasy start in Week 4.
Ollie Gordon @ Minnesota Vikings
Fantasy managers dumped a bunch of FAAB on Gordon, who’s the RB35 in the consensus ranks this week. However, he’s a bench candidate in a tough matchup and in a committee at best with Jaylen Wright returning to a full practice. Wright is listed as Miami’s RB1 on the team’s depth chart, and the Vikings have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. Running backs have averaged only 66.7 rushing yards on 21.3 carries when facing Minnesota, and you need a microscope to see the Dolphins’ team total of just 13.5 points this week.