De’Von Achane originally looked like a DFS lineup lock this week, but he’s become risky with Quinn Ewers starting over a benched Tua Tagovailoa. Achane suffered dramatic splits with Tagovailoa off the field last season (22.5 ppg vs. 8.6), and he owns the highest salary in DK this week. Miami’s total remains respectable (22.5 points), so Achane is still live, but there are alternatives in a week that allows jamming in three top backs.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud ($5.5K) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Stroud’s YPA has jumped from 6.5 on the road to 8.4 at home this season, which has been a theme throughout his career. Houston has the fourth highest team total (26.5 points) in a friendly matchup Sunday. The Raiders rank toward the bottom of the league in pressure rate, and the only concern here is volume.
Jacoby Brissett ($5.3K) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Brissett has been fantasy’s QB4 since taking over in Week 6 with the help of a ton of volume. He’s averaged a staggering 48.4 dropbacks over nine starts, which is 38% higher than Sam Darnold has averaged this season. The Cardinals lead the league in neutral pass rate by a mile over the last month.
Brissett gets an Atlanta defense that’s shut down the run but has allowed the fourth most schedule-adjusted QB fantasy points over the last five weeks. Brissett figures to be popular in DFS given the lack of alternatives and his still modest salary. He’s cheaper this week despite just scoring the most fantasy points by a quarterback against the Texans this season.
Aaron Rodgers ($5.0K) @ Detroit Lions
Rodgers has played well over the last two weeks, and he gets a matchup indoors Sunday; his DK fantasy points have spiked 32% (18.6) when outside of Pittsburgh this year. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense yielding the third fewest RB fantasy points but the fifth most to quarterbacks. Detroit’s secondary has dealt with numerous injuries, and the Lions have ceded the second most YPA (9.1) since Week 12. DK Metcalf and the Pittsburgh tight end of your choosing provide affordable stacking opportunities in a matchup with this week’s highest total (51.5 points).
Others: Joe Burrow ($6.5K), Justin Herbert ($6.0K), Gardner Minshew ($4.5K), Quinn Ewers ($4.0K)
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson ($8.7K) @ Arizona Cardinals
Robinson has avoided 17 more tackles than any other back this season, and Kirk Cousins targeted him 11 times last week. Drake London could return, and Tyler Allgeier remains a threat to steal goal-line TDs, but Robinson easily leads the league in yards from scrimmage. He gets a highly favorable matchup, as only the putrid Jets have allowed more schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points than Arizona over the last five weeks. The Falcons have one of their highest team totals (25.5 points) of the year, and the Cardinals just allowed the first Houston RB (Jawhar Jordan) to run for 100 yards all season.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8.5K) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Gibbs has somehow alternated scoring zero or three touchdowns in seven straight games since Detroit’s Week 8 bye. He should bounce back Sunday after suffering one of his lowest scoring fantasy games of the year last week. Gibbs has averaged 27.1 DK fantasy points at home this season, and the Steelers will be traveling during a short week having just played Monday night.
T.J. Watt is unlikely to return, and Gibbs has seen a big increase in targets with Dan Campbell calling plays (and Sam LaPorta out). Moreover, Detroit ranks second in neutral pace since Campbell took over. The Lions have by far the highest team total (30.5 points) in Week 16.
James Cook ($7.7K) @ Cleveland Browns
Cook has averaged 26.3 touches over the last three games, and he gets a Cleveland run defense that’s dramatically declined since losing DT Maliek Collins; the Browns have allowed the fifth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. Cook has experienced a whopping 48% increase in PPR fantasy scoring during wins this year, and the Bills are 10-point favorites against a Browns team allowing historical QB pressure. Running will be conducive with temperatures around freezing in Cleveland.
Others: De’Von Achane ($8.8K), Woody Marks ($6.6K), Michael Carter ($5.4K), Kenneth Gainwell ($5.1K)
Wide Receivers
Michael Wilson ($6.9K) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Wilson would become unviable should Marvin Harrison Jr. return this week, but he’s a must-play at this salary if MHJ is inactive. Wilson has performed like a star with Harrison sidelined, benefitting from Jacoby Brissett averaging 48.4 dropbacks while starting. The Falcons have been stingy against the run but have allowed by far the most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks. Wilson would be a top five fantasy wideout this week if Harrison sits again, but MHJ returned to a limited practice Wednesday during a walkthrough.
DK Metcalf ($5.4K) @ Detroit Lions
Metcalf’s usage has been disappointing this season, but he should see more volume Sunday. Detroit is a pass-funnel defense yielding the third fewest RB fantasy points but the second most to wide receivers. A banged-up Lions’ secondary has allowed the highest explosive pass rate since Week 12. Metcalf is an obvious bring back option in a matchup with this week’s highest total (51.5 points).
Keenan Allen ($4.8K) @ Dallas Cowboys
Allen hasn’t scored double-digit PPR fantasy points since Week 7, but Sunday’s game-script should be favorable. Tre’ Harris ($3.2K) would also be a sleeper, but Quentin Johnston returned to practice Wednesday. Dallas has been gashed for the third most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks, including the second most to the slot (where Allen has run 40% of his routes). Most importantly, the Cowboys should put up points at home, forcing Los Angeles to throw more than usual.
Others: Ja’Marr Chase ($8.6K), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.4K), Jameson Williams ($6.4K), Adonai Mitchell ($4.5K), Hollywood Brown ($3.9K)
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($4.7K) @ Tennessee Titans
Kelce could fly under the radar with Patrick Mahomes out, but he’ll see increased targets should Rashee Rice miss Sunday’s game. Rice entered concussion protocol after taking multiple big hits last week, and the Chiefs have zero incentive to rush him back. Kelce should be a favorite target underneath for Gardner Minshew in a matchup against a pass-funnel defense; the Titans have allowed the second fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks but the second most to quarterbacks over that span. Kelce becomes a sneaky DFS play should Rice sit.
Others: Trey McBride ($7.6K), Kyle Pitts Sr. ($5.0K), Oronde Gadsden ($4.1K), Darren Waller ($3.5K), Darnell Washington ($2.6K)