Quarterback Starts
Jaxson Dart vs. Washington Commanders
Dart’s fantasy ceiling may be lower with fewer designed runs, but he remains a strong start this week. Dart has been fantasy’s QB3 in points per game since starting in Week 4, and he gets a favorable home matchup Sunday. Washington has yielded the sixth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks, and the Giants own one of their highest totals (24.5 points) of the season. Dart is my QB8 this week.
Brock Purdy vs. Tennessee Titans
Purdy is coming off a couple of down games, but he played better in a tough matchup in Cleveland before San Francisco’s bye. He’s gotten a 9.0 YPA at home throughout his career, and the Titans are a pass-funnel defense; Tennessee has allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted RB rushing fantasy points but the most versus quarterbacks over the last five weeks. It doesn’t get any more extreme than that. The 49ers have the second highest implied team total (29.5 points) this week. Purdy is my QB9, ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
Marcus Mariota @ New York Giants
Mariota was fantasy’s QB8 over Weeks 10-13 before temporarily giving way to Jayden Daniels last week, and he gets a favorable matchup Sunday. The Giants have yielded the fifth most schedule-adjusted QB fantasy points over the last five weeks, and they’ve allowed the third most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. MarioTA owns the league’s fourth highest QB designed run rate (11%), and Washington’s offense is far more dangerous with a healthy Terry McLaurin. Mariota is my QB13 this week.
Running Back Starts
Travis Etienne Jr. vs. New York Jets
Etienne had two touchdown runs over the first 17 minutes last week, and he then saw every backfield carry and 13-of-14 RB opportunities after Bhayshul Tuten lost a fumble. The rookie may not be fully benched again this week, but Etienne should see a big workload Sunday in a highly favorable matchup. The Jets have been getting gashed against the run since trading away Quinnen Williams, including allowing a whopping 10 touchdowns to running backs over the last four games. The Jaguars sport the league’s third highest total (28.5 points) and are 13.5-point favorites against Brady Cook. Etienne is my RB9 this week, ahead of Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs.
Woody Marks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Marks took over Houston’s backfield with Nick Chubb suffering an early injury last week, seeing 87% of the designed carries and 89% of the snaps. Marks could’ve easily had two touchdowns, but he sat out one play after getting banged up and lost a short score to Dare Ogunbowale during his lone carry. Marks was limited in practice Thursday, while Chubb remained sidelined.
Assuming Marks is good to go Sunday, he gets an Arizona defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted RB rushing fantasy points over the last five weeks. The Texans are near double-digit favorites thanks to their league-best defense, so game-script should be positive. Marks is my RB14, ahead of Quinshon Judkins.
Devin Neal vs. Carolina Panthers
Neal will be an RB2 this week assuming he’s active (limited at Thursday’s practice) and Alvin Kamara sits again (DNP Thursday). The rookie has dominated New Orleans’ backfield work, including a goal-line score last week. Carolina has defended the pass well but has allowed the third most RB rushing schedule-adjusted fantasy points over the last five weeks. Game-script shouldn’t get out of hand for the Saints, so Neal is my RB24 this week.
D’Andre Swift & Kyle Monangai vs. Cleveland Browns
Chicago wants to run the ball as much as possible and limit Caleb Williams’ exposure, and Sunday should provide a perfect opportunity. Cleveland has allowed nearly a full yard per play more on the road this season, and Browns’ opponents own the league’s fourth highest run rate. Moreover, wind-chill could reach below zero during this game.
Cleveland has remained incredibly stingy against the pass, but the Browns have been gashed for the second most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. The Bears are more than touchdown favorites, so Swift and Monangai are both worth starting this week.
Wide Receiver Starts
Terry McLaurin @ New York Giants
McLaurin was quiet after an early 28-yard catch last week, but he was facing a Minnesota defense ceding the fewest schedule-adjusted WR points over the last five weeks. McLaurin looks good, and he was again treated as Washington’s WR1 during the team’s shutout loss. The Giants have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and McLaurin has been especially productive with Mariota this season. Scary Terry is my WR16 this week.
Jauan Jennings vs. Tennessee Titans
Jennings quietly scored in four of his previous five games despite a couple of low volume tough matchups before San Francisco’s bye. He’s emerged as the 49ers’ clear WR1, and Purdy should be healthier with time off. The Titans are a pass-funnel defense that’s stingy against the run but has allowed the fourth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs over the last five weeks. Jennings is my WR20 this week, ahead of DeVonta Smith.
DK Metcalf vs. Miami Dolphins
The Steelers didn’t have one pass of 20 air yards or more in six weeks before completing four last week. More downfield looks would be good news for Metcalf, who’s scored four of his five touchdowns at home this year. The Dolphins have been stout against the run but have allowed the eighth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks. Metcalf is my WR21.
Sits & Fades
Breece Hall @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Hall was back at practice Thursday, but knee soreness is just one concern about his Week 15 status. The Jets will likely be starting Brady Cook and sport a lowly 14.5-point team total. Hall saw just one target last week, which must change moving forward. He gets a Jacksonville defense allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. Hall is a great back capable of breaking off a long run at any point, so he’s more of a “fade” than a true “sit” this week. He’s my RB24, behind Woody Marks, TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Kenneth Walker and D’Andre Swift.
Jacoby Brissett @ Houston Texans
Brissett has been fantasy’s QB3 since taking over in Week 6, remarkably finishing as a QB1 during all eight weeks. But he’s a tough start during the opening round of the fantasy playoffs in a matchup in Houston. The Texans have ceded the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, not allowing a single top-12 QB performance during any week. The Texans have allowed a league-best 59.75 fewer points than their opponents’ implied totals and are the only defense allowing negative EPA/dropback even when they don’t generate pressure (-0.11).
Arizona has just a 16.5-point total with Marvin Harrison Jr. and more importantly left tackle Paris Johnson sidelined. Brissett has averaged a whopping 331 air yards per game, so hopefully he can maintain Michael Wilson’s heater Sunday. But sit the QB this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. @ Seattle Seahawks
The Colts have shockingly signed Philip Rivers out of retirement with Daniel Jones out for the season. The 44-year-old grandpa who last played in 2020 has a “very real chance” of starting Sunday. Rivers reportedly has been speaking weekly with Shane Steichen and was running the same offense at the high school he was coaching, but this is a tough ask having not played in five years. Rivers showed some downfield passing ability when we last saw him as a member of the Colts, but his final memory was a Hail Mary attempt falling well short of the end zone. And five years have passed.
Jonathan Taylor will be fed all the carries he can handle and will likely see an uptick in targets, but Pittman is a sit candidate in a tough matchup in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth fewest schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks, and Rivers is unlikely to attempt many throws downfield. The Colts own an anemic 14.5-point total, so bench Pittman if possible.
Luther Burden vs. Cleveland Browns
“Truther” Burden might very well emerge as Chicago’s WR1 down the stretch and into next season, but he’s a fade in Week 15. The Bears figure to go extremely run-heavy in freezing conditions, and Cleveland is one of the toughest matchups for wideouts. Moreover, Burden’s target rate (12.5%) and fantasy points per route run (0.24) have both dropped in half against man coverage, which the Browns have used at the league’s highest rate (45.4%). Rome Odunze has returned to limited practices this week, so he may be back Sunday as well.
Xavier Worthy vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Worthy has been the WR53 this year despite Rashee Rice missing six games. He’s been one of fantasy’s biggest busts, especially since many managers seemingly continue starting him. Worthy is still ranked as a borderline WR3 (WR38) this week among consensus, which is simply too high.
Worthy is the WR49 in air yards share (25%) this season, and the Chargers have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. It’s too bad Patrick Mahomes can’t throw a deep ball to anyone but Tyreek Hill. Worthy is my WR46 this week.