Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
• Josh Allen bounced back with a monster performance after a couple of down games. He totaled four touchdowns, including a career-long 40-yard TD run. Allen wasn’t picked off for the first time in five games, and he posted the highest scoring fantasy performance of the week.
• James Cook totaled 111 yards, but he fumbled twice (losing one) for the second week in a row. Both of Cook’s fumbles came at the goal-line, but he maintained that role late in the game. It was disappointing given the opponent, and Cook’s ball security will become an issue if it continues any further.
• Dawson Knox led Buffalo in receiving (93 yards), although he had a TD catch overturned. Jackson Hawes caught a touchdown on fourth-and-goal shortly thereafter, while Dalton Kincaid also hit pay dirt in limited snaps during his return. I’m beginning to think Cincinnati has a hard time defending tight ends.
• The Bills had lost an NFL-high 25 straight games when allowing 21+ points in the first half before Sunday.
• Joe Burrow’s first two interceptions of the season came on back-to-back throws, with one a pick-six. Still, he also tossed four touchdowns against a Buffalo defense that entered allowing the second fewest QB fantasy points this season. Burrow was mostly terrific Sunday, when he suffered his first loss over his last nine starts.
• Chase Brown had a TD run and a touchdown catch before halftime. He nearly had a third touchdown (reception) late in the fourth quarter but would finish with just 35 yards from scrimmage and fewer rushing yards than Samaje Perine.
• While Ja’Marr Chase was quieted while shadowed by Christian Benford, Tee Higgins had an eventful game. He was checked for a concussion on multiple occasions yet grabbed two touchdowns and finished as the WR4 this week. He suffered a drop in the third quarter, but Higgins pulled down an amazing one-handed score. He was close to another 48-yard TD, but Burrow overthrew him late in the second quarter.
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
• Sam Darnold struggled in the first half, but a Rashid Shaheed special teams touchdown followed by a Bijan Robinson lost fumble in the red zone quickly turned this into a blowout. Darnold threw three second-half touchdowns and finished as fantasy’s QB5 this week.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba bounced back with his second multi-score game over the last three weeks, but Kenneth Walker had fewer rushing yards (29) than Zach Charbonnet (46) and Velus Jones Jr. (32) despite leading Seattle in carries.
• The Seahawks have scored 30+ points in four halves this season, while the rest of the NFL has totaled six.
• Seattle finished as the top scoring fantasy defense for the second straight week.
• Kirk Cousins led Atlanta to zero touchdowns and posted a -12.8% CPOE in the ninth percentile, while Darnell Mooney had a TD catch nullified by penalty.
• Kyle Pitts led the Falcons in targets (10), catches (six) and receiving yards (90) and pulled down a terrific catch late in the first half. He’s a locked in top 10 TE with Drake London sidelined.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
• DK Metcalf erupted for season-highs in target share (35.3%) and receiving yards (148) during an impressive performance. He didn’t score, but Metcalf’s early 55-yard catch was Pittsburgh’s first completion downfield (20+ air yards) since October.
• Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-high 284 yards and had his first rushing TD since 2023. It marked the third time he’s finished as a top-10 QB this season, and his first since Week 7.
• Both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell found pay dirt, but neither surpassed 15 rushing yards.
• Pittsburgh entered with the NFL’s worst yardage differential (-1,672) over the past 17 games and were outgained by 100+ during Sunday’s win.
• Lamar Jackson had his first TD run in his last eight games, and his first TD pass since Week 10. He wasn’t sharp in the loss, but fantasy managers will take it. Jackson entered having not forced a single missed tackle on any of his 20 designed runs this season, as health has clearly been a major issue. He gets a favorable matchup against the Bengals to open the fantasy playoffs.
• Zay Flowers led Baltimore in receiving, while Isaiah Likely had a second touchdown catch seemingly robbed from him.
• Derick Henry saw four more carries inside the 10-yard line, but his success rate (19%) down there is the third lowest among 29 qualified backs.
• Tyler Loop’s missed extra point ultimately proved costly.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
• Tony Pollard hadn’t topped 60 rushing yards since Week 5 and had never finished a week better than a top 15 fantasy back this season entering Sunday. Naturally, he ran for an NFL-high 161 yards and two touchdowns (including a 65-yard house call) in Cleveland against one of the league’s stingier run defenses. I avoided Pollard as a “sit” in this week’s column because I feared it was too obvious. These teams combined for 60 points in a game that had one of the league’s lowest totals (33.5 points!) of the season. I promise whatever vocation you have chosen in life was wiser than “trying to predict the NFL publicly.”
• The Titans had a season-high in rushing yards (176) before the fourth quarter.
• Cam Ward tossed two touchdowns for the first time in his career and somehow took only one sack.
• The Browns may have lost, but Shedeur Sanders was the game’s story. The rookie threw for 364 yards (8.7 YPA) and totaled four touchdowns while leading Cleveland in rushing. Sanders joined Burrow as the only rookie quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era with 350+ pass yards, three pass TDs and one rush TD in a single game. He also joined Rodgers as the only quarterbacks since 2000 with four completions of 50+ yards in their first three career starts. Sanders threw a bad pick late in the third quarter, but he’s been far better than anticipated.
• Harold Fannin Jr. was fantasy’s TE1 this week, while Jerry Jeudy housed a 60-yard score. Fannin looks like a top-10 TE rest of season with David Njoku banged up and Sanders throwing to him.
• Quinshon Judkins was tackled at the one-yard line at the end of his 58-yard catch. Game-script didn’t go nearly as planned for Judkins, and the Browns’ numerous injuries across their offensive line destroyed him. Judkins has averaged just 3.17 YPC over his last eight games.
• Myles Garrett finished with the second-lowest pass rush win rate of his career Sunday, but he recorded a sack and is just three shy of the NFL record.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
• Travis Etienne had two touchdown runs over the first 17 minutes, and he then further took over Jacksonville’s backfield after Bhayshul Tuten lost a fumble.
• Trevor Lawrence is first in the NFL in Success Rate since the Jakobi Meyers trade.
• Brian Thomas Jr. took a backseat to Meyers again, but he secured a terrific one-handed catch and made another nice grab later. BTJ’s 87 receiving yards were nearly his season-high (90).
• Daniel Jones’ season ended with a torn Achilles in the first quarter, and it’s obviously a brutal loss. With Anthony Richardson on IR, Riley Leonard takes over to face a difficult upcoming stretch (@Sea, S.F., Jax, @Hou). It’s a major downgrade for Jonathan Taylor and Indy’s pass catchers.
• Taylor lost a fumble but had his first TD run since Week 10 and finished with the most rushing yards (74) by any running back against Jacksonville this season. Taylor saw zero targets during Leonard’s 29 pass attempts, which needs to change moving forward.
• Michael Pittman Jr. led the Colts with 12 targets and had a TD catch nullified by penalty, when he showed genuine concern to a photog he injured on the play.
Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings
• J.J. McCarthy had touchdown passes on back-to-back drives after Minnesota had gone 22 straight possessions without a TD. McCarthy would finish with three TD tosses, but none went to Justin Jefferson. A plus matchup and a watered-down offense helped, but it was at least encouraging.
• I was wrong calling Jefferson’s performance last week rock bottom, as Sunday’s was even worse considering his team scored 31 points instead of being shut out. What an utter disaster.
• The Vikings became the first team since 1992 to win via shutout after being shut out in their previous game.
• Jayden Daniels was blown up after an interception in the third quarter and wouldn’t return. Marcus MarioTA was picked immediately after entering. Coach Dan Quinn said Daniels could have returned, but Washington is in a lost season.
• The Commanders ran just 49 plays during the fastest game in the NFL (2:39) this season.
• Washington fears Zach Ertz tore his ACL during a low hit.
• Terry McLaurin was quiet after an early 28-yard catch, but he was facing a Minnesota defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver over its last five games.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
• De’Von Achane was fantasy’s RB7 this week despite leaving the second quarter with a rib injury. He supposedly could’ve returned, but Mike McDaniel elected to keep him out with the score so lopsided. Miami was up 21-0 barely 10 minutes in.
• Jaylen Wright scored a goal-line TD in the first quarter, and he acted as Miami’s clear lead back after Achane departed in the second. Wright had 24 carries for a career-high 107 rush yards, although he’d lose a goal-line score to Ollie Gordon in garbage time. Wright needs to be rostered in all fantasy leagues.
• The Dolphins ran for 249 yards, as the Jets have become one of the most favorable RB matchups since trading Quinnen Williams. Travis Etienne is up next.
• Tyrod Taylor left in the first quarter with a groin injury, and New York gained just two first downs in the first half.
• Game-script was perfect for Adonai Mitchell to see volume, but Brady Cook posted a -18.2% CPOE in the fourth percentile.
• The Jets are still the only team without an interception this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Tyler Shough threw for just 144 scoreless yards, but he finished as fantasy’s QB6 this week thanks to his legs. The rookie ran for 55 yards and two touchdowns, highlighted by the eventual game-winning score in which he avoided what looked like a sure sack. The upset ruined many Survivor entries.
• Devin Neal continued to act as New Orleans’ feature back and scored the first touchdown of his career. He finished as an RB1 this week despite not seeing many targets (one) as expected.
• Baker Mayfield threw a TD for an NFL-high 20th straight game at home, but he finished with a lowly 122 yards in the upset loss. Mayfield posted an ugly -16.5% CPOE as both passing offenses struggled mightily in wet conditions.
• Bucky Irving secured a TD catch on the opening drive, but he saw just a 45% RB rush share and lost a goal-line score to Sean Tucker. A banged-up Tampa Bay offensive line was also an issue.
• Emeka Egbuka suffered the most consequential drop of Week 14, as he was wide-open for a sure touchdown in the fourth quarter. Since Week 8, Egbuka has been the ~WR4 by target share but the ~WR38 by fantasy points per game, and now Mike Evans returns.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
• Matthew Stafford threw three more touchdowns and finished as fantasy’s QB5 this week despite not attempting a pass in the fourth quarter. Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven straight games, when he’s recorded an acceptable 23:2 TD:INT ratio.
• Puka Nacua had been the WR14 over his previous four games, but he was fantasy’s WR1 this week. Nacua pulled down multiple touchdowns for the first time this season, and he posted an NFL-high 167 receiving yards despite not seeing a fourth quarter target.
• Davante Adams entered with 24 end-zone targets this season compared to just three for Nacua, but he had his worst game of the year Sunday. Adams had scored 11 touchdowns over his previous six games.
• Kyren Williams (13-84-1) and Blake Corum (11-80-1) split work evenly through three quarters and had near identical lines. Corum then took one carry to begin the fourth for a career-long 48-yard TD run before Ronnie Rivers handled the rest of Los Angeles’ RB carries.
• The Rams had 31 points with 10+ minutes remaining in the third quarter and went on a 45-3 run at one point in this game. L.A. had 306 yards in the first half, reaching third down just once
• Jacoby Brissett struggled but led Arizona in rushing and once again benefitted from garbage time. Brissett leads the NFL in passing yards, completions and attempts since Week 6, although he missed a wide-open Trey McBride in the end zone late in the game.
• Michael Wilson was ranked as a top-10 WR among consensus this week with Marvin Harrison Jr. (and Greg Dortch) out, and he didn’t disappoint. Wilson led the league with 11 catches while scoring twice Sunday. Wilson had a 6-81-1 line at halftime, so he was doing work in a tougher matchup with the score closer as well. He’s a bona fide WR1 as long as Harrison is sidelined.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
• Jordan Love tossed three touchdowns and finished with a CPOE (+12.0%) in the 90th percentile during a game that “felt like” six degrees. It was an impressive performance against a Bears’ secondary that’s healthier. Love will continue to benefit from having Christian Watson and Jayden Reed back.
• Watson hauled in two more touchdowns and is up to five over his last four games. He secured all four of his team leading four targets, turning them into 89 yards and the two scores. Watson has become a must-start in fantasy, but he’s running hot with TDs and will see a precarious target share with Reed back.
• Reed was quiet after getting three touches during Green Bay’s opening drive, but he enters WR3/4 territory rest of season.
• Caleb Williams went 6-of-14 for just 32 scoreless yards at halftime, but he tossed two TDs afterward. Williams missed an open DJ Moore for a likely walk-in touchdown during his game-ending pick.
• Truther Burden led Chicago in targets (six) and receiving yards (67) and should be ranked ahead of Moore with Rome Odunze out.
• D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai split backfield work nearly evenly, with both seeing at least 15 touches.
• Chicago’s 71 yards in the first half were the fewest ever by a Ben Johnson offense.
• The Bears dropped from the one seed to the seventh with the loss.
• Tom Brady confused Ralphie with his brother, but I respect any “A Christmas Story” reference.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
• Bo Nix ran in a score, but he’s thrown for just two touchdowns over his last four games despite mostly favorable matchups. He got 5.6 YPA indoors Sunday against a Las Vegas defense that entered allowing the eighth-most EPA/pass. The Broncos don’t look like a serious No. 1 seed.
• RJ Harvey saw a career-high 23 touches and punched in another goal-line score. It remains unclear if the rookie back is good at football, but his role makes him an RB2 in fantasy right now.
• Denver is the only team whose quarterback hasn’t scored a touchdown in the third quarter this season.
• The Broncos have won 10 straight games and clinched the common-opponents tiebreaker over the Patriots.
• Kenny Pickett (8.8 YPA) was far more effective after replacing an injured Geno Smith (5.5), although it came during garbage time. The Raiders held the ball for just 20:57 and need to make significant changes during the offseason.
• A delay of game penalty (Brandon Jones unnecessarily laid on top of Tyler Lockett) when the game would’ve been finished allowed Las Vegas to kick a field goal to cover the spread as time expired.
• The Raiders have somehow gone eight straight games with fewer than 75 rushing yards, which is the third longest streak in NFL history.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
• Nico Collins recorded the most receiving yards (121) against the Chiefs this season despite C.J. Stroud completing fewer than half his pass attempts (48.4%).
• Woody Marks saw 28 touches with Nick Chubb leaving with an injury. He was held to 2.6 YPC in a tough matchup but caught a touchdown. Marks likely would’ve scored a second time, but Dare Ogunbowale punched in a five-yard TD during his lone carry while the rookie was briefly banged up.
• Patrick Mahomes recorded no touchdowns and threw three interceptions during a loss that likely ended Kansas City’s season Sunday night. He led the Chiefs in rushing (59 yards) and dealt with the most drops (six) in a game during his career, but Mahomes struggled against a stout Houston defense. Mahomes’ -14.9% CPOE was in the sixth percentile, and his total EPA (-18.1) was in the third. Mahomes had a career-high 10 straight incompletions/interceptions at one point, although to be fair that included a Rashee Rice drop and Travis Kelce turning a reception into a pick. The Texans still haven’t allowed a QB to finish top 12 in any week this year.
• Kansas City’s 10 points were its fewest during any Mahomes start at home.
• The Chiefs have around a 16% chance of making the playoffs now.