Quarterback Starts
Baker Mayfield vs. New Orleans Saints
Mayfield is coming off a couple of quiet games, but he should bounce back this week. He’s been playing through injuries, but Mayfield attempted a season-high six rushes last week. He has a 9:1 TD:INT ratio over five home games this season and may be getting Mike Evans back. Chris Godwin is getting closer to full health, and the Bucs have a healthy team total (26.5 points). Mayfield is my QB9 this week.
Bo Nix @ Las Vegas Raiders
Nix has a good chance to finish as a QB1 for the first time since Week 8. He has just two TD passes over 110 attempts over the last three games, so Nix has been running cold on touchdowns. He still possesses rushing equity with an eight percent designed run rate. The Raiders are toward the bottom of the league in pressure rate, and Maxx Crosby was a DNP in practice Thursday. The Broncos will likely dominate time of possession while compiling plays on offense. Nix is my QB10 this week.
Daniel Jones @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jones’ fantasy ceiling is gone while playing through a fractured fibula, as his lone rush attempt last week came during a fumble recovery. Still, he gets the league’s most extreme pass-funnel defense this week. Jaguars’ opponents own the NFL’s highest pass rate (65.4%) by a wide margin. Jones is typically a better play indoors, but his matchup is favorable. Jones is my QB12 this week.
Running Back Starts
Quinshon Judkins vs. Tennessee Titans
Judkins’ efficiency metrics have been hurt by facing the most stacked boxes in the NFL by a significant margin, but he gets a favorable matchup this week. Judkins has seen his fantasy production increase 30% during wins this season, and the Browns are up to 4.5-point favorites; Cleveland’s defense will likely swallow Cam Ward. Tennessee has allowed the sixth most RB fantasy points this year. Judkins is my RB12 this week, ahead of Saquon Barkley.
Ashton Jeanty vs. Denver Broncos
The Raiders are a mess and have a lowly 16.5-point total against one of the league’s best defenses. But Jeanty’s role is simply too good to bench him. The rookie has seen eight targets in three straight games, and he saw 23-of-24 RB opportunities and a season-high snap share (95.7%) last week. Jeanty is tied for the lead in touchdowns among rookies, and the Broncos’ defense was on the field for a whopping 85 plays during Sunday night’s overtime win. Jeanty is my RB16 this week.
Devin Neal @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Neal didn’t have a big game during his first start last week, but he saw 81% of the snaps and 17-of-22 RB opportunities. Taysom Hill appears to be no threat outside of the goal-line. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks, when they’ve been especially friendly to receiving backs. Neal was given a healthy 55% route share last week, so he’ll remain involved during a negative game-script. Neal can be started in a week lacking alternatives. He’s my RB22, ahead of Woody Marks.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson vs. Washington Commanders
Jefferson just hit rock bottom with a career-low four receiving yards, resulting in questions about benching him this week. Jefferson hasn’t finished as a top eight fantasy WR in any week this season, and he’s been the WR41 since Minnesota’s Week 6 bye.
Still, Jefferson should remain in fantasy lineups during a highly favorable home matchup against Washington. The Commanders’ defense ranks last in the league in EPA/dropback and has allowed the fifth most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks. Jefferson’s role remained strong with J.J. McCarthy, who’s an upgrade over Max “don’t tase me” Brosmer. Jefferson is my WR11 this week.
Christian Watson vs. Chicago Bears
Dontayvion Wicks pulled down two touchdowns on Thanksgiving, but Watson remained Green Bay’s clear WR1. Watson owns a 26% target share while registering 2.27 yards per route run over the last month, when he’s also seen the third most air yards (472) in the league. Watson ranks sixth in yards per route run during plays without pressure, and Chicago owns the league’s third lowest pressure rate.
The Bears have improved against the run but have ceded the third most fantasy points to wide receivers. Jayden Reed will likely be limited if he’s able to come back this week, so Watson is my WR16.
Adonai Mitchell vs. Miami Dolphins
Mitchell owns a 92% route participation rate and a staggering 32% target share over two games since starting for the Jets, when he’s also accrued nearly 100 more air yards (355) than any other receiver in the league. Mitchell has now earned 0.27 targets per route run in his career – only six wideouts have a higher rate this year.
The Jets considered Mitchell far more than just a throw in when included in the Sauce Gardner deal, and the young wideout is proving the organization right. Mitchell remains prone to drops and the occasional mistake, but don’t forget the play he made before his infamous gaffe at the goal-line. Mitchell ranked fifth out of 3,402 wide receivers in Relative Athletic Score coming out of college, and he’s quickly become New York’s WR1 with Garrett Wilson sidelined.
The Dolphins have defended the run far better recently but have allowed the eighth most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks. Mitchell is my WR24.
Sits & Fades
Deebo Samuel @ Minnesota Vikings
Samuel saw seven targets last week, but it took 50 pass attempts and 85 offensive plays. Terry McLaurin acted as Washinton’s clear WR1 during his return despite playing limited snaps, and Samuel is fighting Zach Ertz for targets as well. The Vikings have yielded the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, including being stingy against the slot. Samuel is the WR28 in the consensus ranks, but he’s a bench candidate this week.
Justin Herbert vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Herbert is expected to play through his broken left hand Monday night, but he’ll be compromised. He gets a tough matchup against the Eagles, and the injury will limit his running at minimum. Trey Lance is being prepared for goal-line packages, as Herbert took zero snaps under center after returning to last week’s game. The Chargers have dropped all the way down to 28th in EPA/dropback with Joe Alt out over the last month, and Los Angeles may go run-heavy with Omarion Hampton back and Jalen Carter sidelined Monday night. The Chargers sport a modest 19.5-point team total, which is the same as the Browns. Herbert is a tough start this week.
Woody Marks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Marks has taken over as Houston’s lead back, but he gets a stingy Kansas City run defense ceding the third fewest schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points over the last five weeks. Since Week 6, the Chiefs have limited fantasy scoring against Travis Etienne (7.3 fantasy points), Jahmyr Gibbs (7.0), Ashton Jeanty (3.9), James Cook (13.0), RJ Harvey (6.5), Jonathan Taylor (7.6) and Javonte Williams (15.5). Marks has averaged 17.6 rush attempts over his last three games, but he hasn’t topped eight fantasy points in any of them. He's a fade if possible.
Kareem Hunt vs. Houston Texans
Hunt is at risk of losing more work to Isiah Pacheco during his second game back, and Houston presents a difficult matchup. The Texans have allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points coming on the ground over the last five weeks. Hunt is always a threat to hit pay dirt given his goal-line prowess, but both his floor and ceiling are low this week.