Quarterback Starts
Justin Herbert vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers’ offense has been a disaster with Joe Alt off the field, but Los Angeles likely spent its bye week working on the team’s offensive line issues. Moreover, the Raiders sacked Shedeur Sanders just once during his first career start last week. Herbert has averaged 275.2 pass yards, 35.0 rush yards and 2.0 touchdowns at home this season, and the Chargers have a healthy team total (25.5 points). Herbert is my QB7 this week.
Bo Nix @ Washington Commanders
Nix gets a prime matchup coming out of Denver’s bye against a Washington defense that ranks toward the bottom of the league in pressure rate. The Commanders have ceded the second most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Washington has also been gashed for an NFL-high 8.9 YPA – a full yard higher than the second worst pass defense. Nix hasn’t played very well this season, but he’s been fantasy’s QB12 anyway. He’s my QB9 this week.
Jacoby Brissett @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brissett lost touchdowns to his running back and defense against Jacksonville, but he still finished as a QB1 for his sixth straight week. Brissett has been fantasy’s QB3 (tied with Jalen Hurts) since taking over in Week 6, and volume should be there again Sunday. The Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense, and the Cardinals own the league’s highest pass rate over expected over the last month. Michael Wilson has emerged as a legit weapon, and Marvin Harrison Jr. looks likely to return Sunday. Ideally, Baker Mayfield plays to provide pushback. Brissett is my QB 11 this week.
Running Back Starts
TreVeyon Henderson vs. New York Giants
Henderson disappointed fantasy managers in a prime matchup last week, but he held onto New England’s RB1 role despite Rhamondre Stevenson’s return. Stevenson failed during multiple opportunities at the goal-line, so it’s possible Henderson gets more chances there too. The rookie is seeing increased targets, and he faces the NFL’s worst run defense Monday night. The Giants have allowed an NFL-high 5.9 YPC and the second most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks. Don’t let last week’s box score shy you off Henderson this week. He’s my RB8.
Breece Hall vs. Atlanta Falcons
Hall lost a fumble near the goal-line in the fourth quarter last week, but he almost recorded as many receiving yards (75) with Tyrod Taylor as he had totaled over his previous five games (76). Hall’s explosion has returned this season, although New York’s offense has mostly hidden it. Taylor is an upgrade at quarterback, and game-script won’t be as negative as usual this week. The Falcons have yielded the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks, and Atlanta’s opponents own one of the league’s highest rush rates. Hall is my RB11 this week.
RJ Harvey @ Washington Commanders
Harvey was quiet in a tougher matchup during Denver’s last game, but he acted as the Broncos’ lead back with J.K. Dobbins out. The rookie gets a much more favorable opponent when Denver comes out of its bye, as the Commanders have yielded the sixth most schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points over the last five weeks. The Broncos are near touchdown favorites, so game-script should be positive. Harvey doesn’t need more than 15-18 touches to be an RB2 with RB1 upside. He’s my RB16 this week, ahead of Rico Dowdle.
Jaylen Warren & Kenneth Gainwell vs. Buffalo Bills
Warren has been the RB37 in expected fantasy points per game over the last two weeks, while Gainwell has been the RB7 while seeing the high-value touches. Warren (RB19) remains ranked comfortably ahead of Gainwell (RB27) in ECR this week, but they should be closer. Both of Pittsburgh’s backs are worth starting in a matchup against a run-funnel Buffalo defense that’s far tougher against the pass. Bills’ opponents own the league’s lowest pass rate over expected by a wide margin. Warren is my RB17 this week, while Gainwell is my RB24.
Wide Receiver
Michael Wilson @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wilson has been fantasy’s WR3 despite not scoring over the last two weeks. He leads the league in targets (33), receptions (25), receiving yards (303) and air yards (393) over that span, including a 38.6% first-read target share and a strong 3.19 yards per route run. Wilson had seven receptions at halftime last week, which matched Harrison’s career high in any game.
Harrison’s likely return this week downgrades Wilson, but he still belongs in fantasy lineups. Brissett has been a major upgrade for Arizona’s pass catchers, and Wilson has earned a much bigger role in the Cardinals’ offense even with Harrison back. Brissett is providing the most catchable air yards per game, and Tampa Bay has allowed the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs over the last five weeks, when the Bucs have been stingy versus tight ends. Wilson is my WR18 this week.
Stefon Diggs vs. New York Giants
Diggs is coming off a down game when his snap share fell to 48% with Kayshon Boutte returning, but he’s in a good spot to bounce back Monday night. Diggs’ target rate has jumped to 26.4%, and he ranks top 20 in fantasy points per route run against man coverage, which the Giants have used at the league’s fourth highest rate (33.4%). Diggs is my WR20 this week.
Troy Franklin @ Washington Commanders
Franklin ranks first in the league in unrealized air yards, third in designed targets and seventh in red-zone targets. He’s finally surpassed Courtland Sutton in the consensus ranks this week, when Franklin gets a Washington defense that’s allowed the fifth most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks. Moreover, Franklin’s target rate has jumped to 30.4% against man coverage, which Washington has used at the league’s 10th highest rate. Franklin is my WR24 this week.
Sits & Fades
Brock Purdy @ Cleveland Browns
It’s unclear if Purdy’s toe injury affected his poor performance Monday night, but he’s in a tough spot to rebound in Cleveland in a short week. Purdy has struggled throughout his career in wet conditions, and weather will be an issue Sunday, including snow and wind gusts pushing 35 mph. The total in this game is down to 35.5 points, and passing could be at a minimum. The Browns have allowed an NFL-low 4.1 yards per play at home this season, and this game will be slow-paced. Sit Purdy this week.
Daniel Jones vs. Houston Texans
Jones plans to play through a fractured fibula, but it’s safe to expect the injury to affect his performance. Jones almost certainly won’t be running, and he faces arguably the league’s best pass defense this week. The Texans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, as no QB has finished top 12 in any week against them. Dimes belongs on fantasy benches this week.
Aaron Jones Sr. @ Seattle Seahawks
Jones remains Minnesota’s lead back, but he loses goal-line work to Jordan Mason and plays on an offense with the league’s lowest team total (14.5 points) this week. It’s possible if not likely Max Brosmer is an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy, but Minnesota has major QB issues in a tough matchup in Seattle. The Browns with Shedeur Sanders in a blizzard against an 8-4 team are projected to score more points than the Vikings this week.
Devin Neal @ Miami Dolphins
Neal is set to act as New Orleans’ lead back with Alvin Kamara sidelined, but he may be splitting work with Taysom Hill on a bad offense. Hill saw eight of New Orleans’ 14 designed RB carries after Kamara left last week, and the converted tight end has five rush attempts inside the 10-yard line over the last two games. Neal has climbed to the RB24 in ECR this week, but he should be considered more of a flex at best. The Dolphins were dramatically improved against the run before Miami’s bye, and Neal’s fantasy upside will be limited if Hill retains the Saints’ goal-line role.
Tetairoa McMillan vs. Los Angeles Rams
McMillan is highly unlikely to be on many fantasy benches, as he’s the WR13 in the consensus ranks this week. But expectations need to be lowered facing one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. Moreover, McMillan will likely be shadowed by Emmanuel Forbes, who’s been one of the league’s best corners this season. Bryce Young’s days as a starter are numbered, and Carolina sports a lowly 16.5-point team total. Explore alternatives if you happen to have strong WR depth this week.