It’s a tricky week with six of the top nine (and 10 of the top 15) ranked quarterbacks in ECR off the main slate because of Thanksgiving. Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are among other missing stars, while Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have tougher projected matchups.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert ($6.5K) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers’ offense has been a disaster with Joe Alt off the field, but Los Angeles likely spent its bye week working on the team’s offensive line issues. Moreover, the Raiders sacked Shedeur Sanders just once during his first career start last week. Herbert has averaged 23.3 DK fantasy points over six home games this season, and the Chargers are tied with the second highest team total (26.5 points) on the slate.
Jacoby Brissett ($5.8K) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brissett lost touchdowns to his running back and defense last week, but he still put up 21.7 DK fantasy points. Brissett has been the QB3 (tied with Jalen Hurts) since taking over in Week 6, and volume should be there again Sunday. The Buccaneers are a pass-funnel defense with their opponents owning the league’s seventh highest pass rate. However, there’s concern this game becomes lower scoring should Teddy Bridgewater start for a banged-up Baker Mayfield.
Cam Ward ($4.6K) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ward is coming off the best game of his career, and the Titans’ offense has shown improvement since Brian Callahan was fired. Ward has played far better at home this season, and he’s run more over the last two games, when he’s averaged 35.0 rush yards. The Jaguars are the league’s most extreme pass-funnel defense by a wide margin, and Jacksonville has allowed the fifth most schedule-adjusted QB fantasy points this season. Ward is a sneaky DFS play in a week bereft of quarterback options.
Others: Josh Allen ($7.5K), C.J. Stroud ($5.0K) or Davis Mills ($4.5K)
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor ($9.8K) vs. Houston Texans
Taylor has rotated monster weeks with fantasy duds since Week 8, and he’s expensive in a tougher matchup. Still, Taylor remains capable of breaking any slate, especially when at home. JT has averaged a whopping 32.8 DK fantasy points over six home games this season, and that includes a lowly 12.8 way back in Week 1.
The Colts are coming off a loss in which they failed to produce a first down over their final four possessions while mostly ignoring Taylor. Moreover, Houston hasn’t allowed a single top 12 fantasy QB performance all season, so Taylor will be featured Sunday. Christian McCaffrey ($9.3K) is always a strong option, but he also gets a tough matchup and is traveling after racking up 31 touches Monday night.
De’Von Achane ($8.3K) vs. New Orleans Saints
Achane has one of the best roles in the league, and he should be fresh coming out of Miami’s bye. He’s had major splits this season while averaging 27.0 DK fantasy points at home, and game-script should be favorable with the Dolphins six-point favorites. Given his salary, matchup and alternatives, Achane is my DFS lineup lock of the week.
Breece Hall ($6.0K) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Hall lost a fumble near the goal-line in the fourth quarter last week, but he almost recorded as many receiving yards (75) with Tyrod Taylor as he had totaled over his previous five games (76). Hall’s explosion has returned this season, although New York’s offense has mostly hidden it. Taylor looks like an upgrade at quarterback, and game-script won’t be as negative as usual this week. The Falcons have yielded the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks, and Atlanta’s opponents own one of the league’s highest rush rates.
Others: Christian McCaffrey ($9.3K), Kyren Williams ($6.6K), Omarion Hampton ($5.9K), Kenneth Walker ($5.3K)
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9.5K) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Smith-Njigba has already broken Seattle’s season franchise receiving record before Thanksgiving and is the first player in NFL history with 75+ receiving yards in each of his team’s first 11 games. JSN is one of only four wide receivers in NFL history to surpass 1,300 receiving yards through 11 games, and he’s the only one to do so on fewer than 120 targets (107).
The Vikings have been stingy versus receivers over the last five weeks, and Minnesota opponents own the league’s lowest pass rates, but JSN has been matchup and volume proof. His league-leading 4.34 yards per route run looks like a misprint, and the Seahawks have the slate’s highest total (26.5 points).
Michael Wilson ($5.9K) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wilson led the league with 15 targets last week, when he also drew a long DPI to go along with his 118 yards. Wilson had seven receptions at halftime, which are the most Marvin Harrison Jr. has ever had in a game in his career. Wilson has a 38.6% first-read target share while getting 3.19 YPRR over the last two weeks.
Harrison is still without a timeline to return, so Wilson remains underpriced in DFS. Tampa Bay has allowed the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs over the last five weeks, when the Bucs have been stingy versus tight ends.
Adonai Mitchell ($3.6K) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mitchell ranked second in the league in air yards (182) during his first action with Tyrod Taylor last week. His 24.5% target share over the last two weeks ranks 22nd among WRs, just ahead of Rashee Rice. Mitchell remains a work in progress and battles drops, but he’s a big play threat seeing volume. The Falcons have allowed the fourth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, so Mitchell is a shrewd DFS flier if searching for salary relief.
Others: Jaylen Waddle ($6.8K), Nico Collins ($6.7K), Ladd McConkey ($6.3K)
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill ($2.7K) @ Miami Dolphins
Trey McBride remains a strong option, but his salary ($7.8K) has become far more cost prohibitive at the same time he’s seen a decreased target share alongside Wilson’s emergence. Meanwhile, Hill saw eight of New Orleans’ 14 designed RB carries after Alvin Kamara left last week’s game. Hill’s six non-sneak carries went for just 2.3 YPC, but he’s seen eight red-zone carries and five rush attempts inside the 10 over the last two games.
Hill didn’t run any routes last week, but he’s set to split carries with rookie Devin Neal with Kamara sidelined and is featured at the goal-line (he also threw a pass there last week). Hill is at risk of putting up a goose egg, but his role also provides some upside at a near minimum cost.
Others: Brock Bowers ($5.8K), Oronde Gadsden ($4.3K), Gunnar Helm ($2.6K)