Quarterback Starts
Jared Goff vs. New York Giants
Goff has finished as a top 12 fantasy QB during just two weeks this season, and he’s coming off a rough performance in which he completed only two of his final 18 pass attempts. That came on the road against arguably the best defense in the league, but Goff returns home this week in a highly favorable matchup. The Giants have been gashed for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Goff has averaged 8.5 YPA and 2.5 TD passes at home this season, and the Lions have the highest implied team total (31.5) across the league. Goff is my QB7 this week.
Brock Purdy vs. Carolina Panthers
Purdy was fantasy’s QB6 during his return last week, when he also looked healthy. He may not run as much while playing through a toe injury, but Purdy has been in a league of his own in deep ball accuracy this season. The 49ers have the second highest team total this week (29.5 points), and Purdy’s averaged a whopping 9.1 YPA at home during his career. His weapons are healthy on offense, so Purdy is my QB8 this week.
Jacoby Brissett vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brissett completed an NFL-record 47 passes and threw for the most yards (452) in any game this season last week. He’s benefitted from garbage time stats each of the last two games, but Brissett also lost a TD on Sunday when Elijah Higgins coughed up a fumble inches before scoring. Brissett has been fantasy’s QB4 since taking over in Week 6 despite missing Marvin Harrison Jr. last week. He gets the league’s biggest pass-funnel defense Sunday, as Jaguars’ opponents have the highest pass rate over expected by a wide margin. Brissett is my QB9, ahead of Dak Prescott.
Running Back Starts
Emanuel Wilson vs. New York Giants
Josh Jacobs sounds like he’ll come down to a game-time decision, but at least fantasy managers will know in the early window Sunday. Fire up Wilson if Jacobs sits. He saw 18-of-19 RB snaps and all eight RB touches in the second half of last week’s game after Jacobs departed. Chris Brooks would see more action, but Wilson would act as Green Bay’s lead back.
The Vikings have been stingy versus receiving RBs but neutral against the run. Moreover, the Packers own one of the league’s highest rush rates and should have a favorable game-script; Green Bay is near touchdown home favorites, and the Packers’ defense should swallow J.J. McCarthy. Wilson is my RB13 this week, ahead of Quinshon Judkins.
Rhamondre Stevenson (& TreVeyon Henderson) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Henderson has scored more fantasy points in each of the past two weeks than Stevenson has scored in any game over his entire career, but the veteran is sure to be heavily involved Sunday if he’s able to return from his toe injury. Stevenson doesn’t have nearly the upside the rookie possesses, but he’s trusted in pass protection and would likely see goal-line work in the league’s most favorable matchup.
The Bengals have yielded 137.1 RB rushing yards per game – the next worst defense has allowed 116.8. Cincinnati has allowed the most schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points over the last five weeks by a significant margin. The Patriots have the league’s second highest team total (29.5 points) and are heavy favorites over a Bengals’ team missing Ja’Marr Chase.
While it will likely become a messy situation as coaches try to find a “sweet spot” regarding their usage moving forward, both Henderson and Stevenson can be started with confidence this week; the Bengals have allowed 20% more RB fantasy points than the next worst defense. Stevenson is my RB20, ahead of Aaron Jones.
Kenneth Walker @ Tennessee Titans
It’s possible Seattle’s backfield remains frustrating, but Mike Macdonald said you could feel Walker’s impact on the ground and in the passing game last week and that “Ken is showing that he deserves some more opportunities.” Sam Darnold threw four picks last week, and the Seahawks are 13.5-point favorites Sunday, so rush volume should be available. Walker punched in a goal-line score last week and had his most active game as a receiver all year. Hopefully Macdonald makes good on his promise. Walker is my RB21, ahead of Breece Hall.
David Montgomery vs. New York Giants
The Lions could drop a 50 burger this week coming off last week’s disaster, and Dan Campbell would like to get Montgomery more carries. Montgomery’s fantasy production has jumped nearly 40% during wins this season, and the Lions are 10.5-point favorites. The Giants have been gashed for the fourth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks and might have the worst run defense in the league. Montgomery is my RB22, also ahead of Hall and Jones.
Wide Receiver Starts
Jameson Williams vs. New York Giants
Williams has been fantasy’s WR5 over the last three weeks, and he’s seeing more horizontal-breaking routes with Campbell calling plays. Moreover, Williams’ targets jump, and he’s produced 3.20 yards per route run with Sam LaPorta off the field since 2024. Williams has also seen a significant boost in target rate and fantasy points per route run versus man coverage, which New York has used at the league’s second highest rate (35.5%). Williams is my WR15 this week, ahead of George Pickens (who may be shadowed by Quinyon Mitchell).
Rome Odunze vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Odunze’s usage and fantasy production have fallen off from earlier this season, but he’s still led Chicago in target share (21.4%) since the Bears’ Week 5 bye. Caleb Williams providing catchable air yards remains a problem, but Odunze gets a highly favorable matchup this week, including schematically. Odunze’s fantasy points per route run have doubled when facing man coverage, which Pittsburgh has used as the league’s fourth highest rate (33.4%).
Moreover, the Steelers are a pass-funnel defense yielding the second most schedule-adjusted WR fantasy points over the last five weeks while being stingy against the run. Pittsburgh’s opponents own the league’s third highest pass rate (62.8%), so volume should be there. Odunze is my WR19, ahead of Zay Flowers.
Michael Wilson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Wilson had failed to capitalize when given bigger opportunities over his first three years in the league, but he looked like a star last week with the help of Jacoby Brissett (and Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined). Wilson led the league in catches (15), targets (18) and receiving yards (185), and his 33% target share was higher than all but one game for Harrison this season. The most yards Harrison has ever logged across a two-game span is 194. The Cardinals have averaged an NFL-high 320 air yards per game with Brissett.
Game-script and garbage time stats have undoubtedly helped, but Wilson gets a favorable matchup to run back last week’s performance. Jacksonville is the league’s biggest pass-funnel defense, as Jaguars’ opponents have the highest pass rate over expected by a wide margin. Moreover, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to the slot (where Greg Dortch mostly plays) but the most to outside receivers this season. Wilson is my WR19, ahead of Michael Pittman Jr.
Ricky Pearsall vs. Carolina Panthers
There’s concern Pearsall’s knee injury becomes a problem again at some point this season, but he ran 85% of the routes during his return last week. He wasn’t productive while running mostly deep and clear-out routes, but expect Kyle Shanahan to get Slick Rick more involved during his second game back Monday night. Purdy and Pearsall were developing real chemistry before injuries struck, and the 49ers are tied for the league’s second highest team total (29.5 points) this week. Pearsall is my WR26, ahead of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Sits & Fades
Tampa Bay RBs @ Los Angeles Rams
Bucky Irving’s health status sounds questionable at best this week, and he might not return “anytime soon.” Sean Tucker impressed (or did he?) while finishing as fantasy’s RB1 last week, when he took over Tampa Bay’s backfield after halftime. Tucker’s workload is expected to increase, and the Bucs have the league’s sixth easiest RB schedule rest of season, so he could easily be a top 20 fantasy back down the stretch with Irving’s status in question. Tucker clearly has more juice than Rachaad White.
However, Tucker gets a far tougher matchup Sunday night against one of the league’s best run defenses. The Rams have allowed just one running back to reach 100 rushing yards and only two RB rushing scores all season. White will remain the team’s passing down back, so Tucker is a fade if possible this week. That said, he could be a winning lottery ticket moving forward.
Daniel Jones @ Kansas City Chiefs
Jones was in the MVP conversation earlier this season, but he went into Indy’s bye coming off back-to-back worrisome performances. He threw more picks, took more sacks and committed four more fumbles over Weeks 9-10 than he had previously all season. His turnover worthy play percentage went from first to second worst, while his pressure-to-sack rate experienced a similar tumble.
Jones will bounce back, but he gets a tough matchup this week in Kansas City against a Chiefs’ pass defense that’s allowed a 6:6 TD:INT ratio over nine games since Week 1. He may benefit from play action more than usual Sunday, but Jones’ running ability could be hampered after he was limited in Thursday’s practice with a calf injury. Dimes is a sit candidate this week.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. @ Detroit Lions
Tracy is in a near even timeshare with Devin Singletary, who’s seen all 18 of the Giants’ snaps inside the 10-yard line over the last three weeks. The Lions have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to running backs, and no opposing back has reached 90 rushing yards. New York has a lowly 19.5-point total, and Jaxson Dart is another threat to steal touchdowns. Tracy is in a tough spot this week.
Jerry Jeudy & Harold Fannin Jr. @ Las Vegas Raiders
Fannin’s route participation fell below 50% last week with the returns of Isaiah Bond and Cedric Tillman, and Cleveland’s dire QB situation somehow might’ve gotten worse. Shedeur Sanders started the second half after Dillon Gabriel exited with a concussion last week, and the Browns were shut out over the final two quarters. Sanders had 20 net passing yards on 16 attempts, with a comical -34.8 completion percentage over expected. In Sanders’ defense, it was apparently the first action he’d ever seen with Cleveland’s ones, and the Ravens’ defense is playing much better.
Still, all Browns’ pass catchers belong on fantasy benches this week, when Sanders’ passing line is set at just 159.5 yards. The Browns have a lowly 16.5-point team total despite a favorable matchup indoors against the Raiders. This game is projected to produce only 36.5 points, as fantasy managers are just hoping Sanders can keep Judkins’ value afloat.