Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($6.6K) @ Dallas Cowboys
Hurts has just one TD pass since Week 8, but more volume should be there Sunday in a possible shootout. Dallas has defended the run better lately, but the Cowboys have ceded the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. The Eagles’ defense might be the best in football, but Dallas should be able to put up points at home. Hurts also provides an obvious stacking opportunity with A.J. Brown ($5.9K) and DeVonta Smith ($5.6K) both underpriced this week.
Jared Goff ($6.0K) vs. New York Giants
Goff is coming off a rough performance in which he completed only two of his final 18 pass attempts. That came on the road against arguably the best defense in the league, but Goff returns home this week in a highly favorable matchup. The Giants have been gashed for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Goff has averaged 20.6 DK fantasy points at home this season, and the Lions have the highest implied team total (31.5) across the league.
Jacoby Brissett ($5.3K) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brissett completed an NFL-record 47 passes and threw for the most yards (452) in any game this season last week. He’s benefitted from garbage time stats each of the last two games, but Brissett also lost a TD on Sunday when Elijah Higgins coughed up a fumble inches before scoring. Brissett has been fantasy’s QB4 since taking over in Week 6 despite missing Marvin Harrison Jr. last week. He gets the league’s biggest pass-funnel defense Sunday, as Jaguars’ opponents have the highest pass rate over expected by a wide margin. Brissett is in a great spot to keep producing fantasy points.
Others: Drake Maye ($6.9K), Jaxson Dart ($5.6K), Trevor Lawrence ($5.1K)
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8.3K) vs. New York Giants
Jonathan Taylor is up to a season-high $10.0K despite a tough matchup on the road, while Bijan Robinson ($8.5K) had just 11 rushing yards after halftime last week with Kirk Cousins (and the Falcons have a lowly 19.5-point total). Gibbs is cheaper than both, and he gets a New York defense allowing the fourth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks. Gibbs’ target share has been way up with Dan Campbell calling plays, and the Lions have the league’s highest total (31.5 points) this week.
TreVeyon Henderson ($6.7K) or Rhamondre Stevenson ($5.2K) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Henderson has scored five touchdowns over the last two games, when he’s finished as a top five fantasy back each week. That said, Mike Vrabel will almost certainly turn back to Stevenson once he’s ready to return from his toe injury. Stevenson doesn’t have nearly the upside the rookie possesses, but he’d become a DFS option if he returns this week given the matchup.
The Bengals have yielded 137.1 RB rushing yards per game – the next worst defense has allowed 116.8. Cincinnati has allowed the most schedule-adjusted RB fantasy points over the last five weeks by a significant margin. The Patriots have the league’s second highest team total (30.5 points) and are heavy favorites over a Bengals’ team missing Ja’Marr Chase. Whom to start will obviously come down to Stevenson’s status.
Emanuel Wilson ($5.3K) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Wilson saw 18-of-19 RB snaps and all eight RB touches in the second half of last week’s game after Josh Jacobs departed. Chris Brooks will see more action if Jacobs sits, but Wilson would become an affordable option in DFS as Green Bay’s lead back. The Vikings have been stingy versus receiving backs but neutral against the run. Moreover, the Packers own one of the league’s highest rush rates and should have a favorable game-script; Green Bay is near touchdown home favorites, and the Packers’ defense should swallow J.J. McCarthy.
Jacobs could potentially play this week, which would end Wilson’s DFS viability.
Others: Derrick Henry ($7.6K), Chase Brown ($6.2K), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5.9K), Kenneth Walker ($5.4K)
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.0K) vs. New York Giants
St. Brown secured just 2-of-12 targets in a season-worst performance last week, but it came outdoors against a dominant Philadelphia defense. Expect a monster bounce back game from the Lions this week, when they also present a stacking opportunity. Moreover, St. Brown leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per route run versus man, which is a coverage the Giants have used at the league's second highest rate (35.5%). St. Brown has averaged 26.9 DK fantasy points at home this season, and he’s a full $1K less than Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Rashee Rice ($7.7K) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Rice managed just 38 scoreless yards last week in a tough matchup, but he gets a more favorable opponent Sunday. Rice owns a 37.5% red-zone target share and ranks fourth in yards per route run since returning from suspension. Rice’s salary has dropped after last week’s dud that came against a Broncos’ defense allowing the fewest WR fantasy points. Colts’ opponents have one of the league’s highest pass rates over expected, and this matchup has the highest total (50.5 points) of Week 12.
Michael Wilson ($4.8K) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Wilson's DFS viability depends on the health of Marvin Harrison Jr., who was reportedly at risk of sitting multiple weeks after undergoing surgery. Wilson’s salary remains far too low if MHJ is out after leading the league in catches (15), targets (18) and receiving yards (185) last week. His 33% target share was higher than all but one game for Harrison this season.
Wilson put up 36.5 DK fantasy points last week despite not scoring, as Brissett has been a major upgrade for Arizona’s pass catchers. The Cardinals have averaged an NFL-high 320 air yards per game with Brissett. Wilson gets a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense that’s allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to the slot (where Greg Dortch mostly plays) but the most to outside receivers this season.
Others: Tee Higgins ($7.1K), A.J. Brown ($5.9K), Jameson Williams ($5.7K), DeVonta Smith ($5.6K)
Tight Ends
Trey McBride ($6.8K) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
McBride has averaged a whopping 24.5 fantasy points (PPR) since Brissett took over in Week 6, which would be fantasy’s RB3 and easily the WR1 for the season. He’s moved into a tier of his own at tight end. While McBride’s salary has increased, it remains a bargain for his production, even without factoring in the positional advantage.
McBride has benefitted from garbage time over the last two weeks, but he gets the NFL’s top pass-funnel defense Sunday. Jacksonville’s opponents have the league’s highest pass rate over expected by a significant margin. Moreover, the Jaguars have been ripped for the second most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends over the last five weeks, with only the Bengals worse. McBride will be chalk, but you’re only fading him to be contrarian.
Others: Brock Bowers ($6.0K), Hunter Henry ($3.9K), Noah Fant ($3.1K)