Quarterback Starts
Joe Flacco @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Flacco has been fantasy’s QB1 since taking over in Cincinnati in Week 6. The Bengals are coming out of their bye and facing a pass-funnel Pittsburgh defense this week; Steelers’ opponents own the league’s fifth-highest pass rate (62.5%). Flacco threw for 342 yards and three scores when these teams met earlier this season, and this matchup has the second highest total (49.5 points) this week. Flacco is my QB10.
J.J. McCarthy vs. Chicago Bears
McCarthy is coming off a tougher matchup against an improving Baltimore defense, but he continues to run and throw deep downfield. He’s indoors Sunday against a Chicago defense allowing the sixth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. McCarthy has been targeting Justin Jefferson appropriately, and the two are due for regression.
Minnesota is tied with the fifth highest team total (26.5 points), and McCarthy returned to a full practice Thursday. He's the youngest starting quarterback in the league, and there’s reason for optimism. He’s my QB11 this week, ahead of Jordan Love.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Rodgers has yet to reach 250 passing yards in a game this season, but he’s in a good spot Sunday. The Bengals have ceded an NFL-high 23 passing scores and rank toward the bottom of the league in pressure rate. Cincinnati has allowed the fifth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks, and Pittsburgh has the second highest total (27.5 points) this week.
Rodgers ripped the Bengals for four scores when these teams met earlier this season, and he’ll keep his tight ends busy again Sunday. Rodgers is my QB13, ahead of Baker Mayfield.
Jacoby Brissett vs. San Francisco 49ers
Brissett will be missing Marvin Harrison Jr. this week, but he remains a sneaky fantasy start anyway. Brissett required garbage time to get there last week in a tough matchup, but he’s been fantasy’s QB8 since taking over in Week 6. He gets an injury-riddled San Francisco defense that ranks last in the league in pressure rate. The 49ers have allowed the seventh most schedule-adjusted QB fantasy points over the last five weeks, and this matchup will be fast-paced. The Cardinals rank first in pass rate over expected without Kyler Murray. I’d start Brissett over Jared Goff this week.
Running Back Starts
Jaylen Warren vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Warren has faced one of the league’s most difficult RB schedules so far this season, but it becomes highly favorable over the next five weeks. Warren has maintained a workhorse role, and this week he gets a Bengals’ defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks (and the season). Running backs have averaged the most carries (25.8), rush yards (141.1) and receiving touchdowns against Cincinnati. The Steelers are favorites and have the second highest team total (27.5 points) this week. Warren is my RB9, ahead of Saquon Barkley.
Aaron Jones Sr. vs. Chicago Bears
Jones was acting as Minnesota’s clear lead back (77% snap share) during his return to action in Week 9 before a shoulder injury sidelined him. He was once again the Vikings’ RB1 last week, when he was given 15-of-20 RB opportunities and all the goal-line snaps. Last week’s game-script was negative in a tougher matchup against Baltimore, but the Vikings are home favorites Sunday. Chicago has allowed the third most yards per play (6.3) in the league, and Bears’ opponents have the second lowest neutral pass rate. Jones is my RB15 this week, ahead of Derrick Henry.
RJ Harvey vs. Kansas City Chiefs
J.K. Dobbins is set to miss time after suffering a foot injury last week, opening touches for Harvey. Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin are Denver’s only other RBs who’ve recorded carries this season, and they’ve totaled three. Both backs will see increased roles now, but Harvey upgrades to an RB2 with upside for more. Harvey leading all backs in PPR points/touch is a bit misleading given his limited work and designed targets, but it also reveals a high ceiling with more touches.
The Broncos’ offense has disappointed this season thanks to Bo Nix, but Sean Payton remains a good play caller, and Denver sports a top three offensive line. Harvey gets a tough matchup against the Chiefs this week, but he’s worth starting with Dobbins sidelined. Harvey is my RB18, ahead of Quinshon Judkins.
Woody Marks @ Tennessee Titans
Marks took over Houston’s backfield last week, finishing with a career-high 78% snap share and 16 touches. The rookie was given every snap inside the red zone, posted a 55% route rate and handled all four carries inside the 10. It may be worth noting Houston was trailing 17-0 early in the game, so more passing situations could’ve led to Marks’ increased role. That said, Marks got his first career start and remained a big part of the offense late in the game.
Fantasy managers have been burned before relying on coaching behavior remaining static, including Marks earlier this season. Moreover, Sunday’s game-script projects to be the opposite of last week’s, with Houston near touchdown favorites. Still, it’s a highly favorable matchup against a Titans’ defense allowing the second most fantasy points to running backs, so Marks has the upside to be an RB1 this week if Houston’s coaching staff cooperates. Marks is my RB23, ahead of Rachaad White.
Wide Receiver Starts
Tee Higgins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Higgins’ production with Joe Flacco would equal fantasy’s WR9 on the year. The Steelers have been gashed for the most fantasy points to outside wide receivers this season, where Higgins has run 88% of his routes. Pittsburgh is stout against the run, leading to opponents owning the league’s fifth highest pass rate (62.5%). Higgins is my WR15 this week, ahead of A.J. Brown.
Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Green Bay Packers
Robinson has seen 11+ targets in three of his past four games and may be even busier this week. Darius Slayton continues to miss practice while battling an ongoing hamstring injury he aggravated last game, and Jameis Winston is taking over at quarterback. Winston may not help the Giants win games, but he made Jerry Jeudy fantasy’s WR2 over eight games last season. Theo Johnson also gets a boost, as David Njoku produced like a top three TE.
Jaxson Dart led all quarterbacks in designed runs despite not starting until Week 4, and nine percent of his dropbacks resulted in scrambles, so more pass attempts should be available; Packers’ opponents have the league’s sixth highest pass rate (61.4%). Robinson is my WR24 this week.
Tre Tucker vs. Dallas Cowboys
Tucker has been quiet over the last few weeks, but he’s coming off a tough matchup in Denver, when he played 100% of the snaps and ran 100% of the routes. Tyler Lockett led Las Vegas in targets last week, but they weren’t productive. A healthy Brock Bowers will be heavily involved, but Tucker should see action with Jakobi Meyers gone. The Cowboys have yielded the second most fantasy points to outside receivers this season, where Tucker has run 84% of his routes. This matchup sports the highest total (50.5 points) of the week. Tucker is my WR32.
Sits & Fades
Baker Mayfield @ Buffalo Bills
Mayfield has zero rush attempts over his last three games, as he’s been playing through multiple injuries. The Bucs rank 29th in the league in explosive pass plays since Mike Evans went down. The Bills are a run-funnel defense that’s allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Forecasts call for sustained winds 15-20 mph, with gusts more than 30. Tampa Bay has the sixth lowest team total (20.5 points) this week, so Mayfield is a fade in a slow-paced matchup if possible.
Rachaad White @ Buffalo Bills
White saw just a 52.6% RB rush share last week, when Sean Tucker became the first running back to reach 50 rushing yards against the Patriots this season. The two have split Tampa Bay’s designed carries over the last two games, and Tucker has been more productive. The Bills are vulnerable against the run, but they’ve been incredibly stingy against receiving backs. White is at risk of losing goal-line work, so his RB23 “expert consensus rank” is too high this week. Obviously, that will drop if Bucky Irving returns.
Kenneth Walker & Zach Charbonnet @ Los Angeles Rams
George Holani’s work came thanks to the lopsided score last week, but Walker and Charbonnet continued to split carries. The Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs, with Brian Robinson recording the first RB rush touchdown against them all season last week (and just the second total). Los Angeles has faced Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey twice and Derick Henry. Walker and Charbonnet belong on fantasy benches this week.
Troy Franklin vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Franklin has emerged as Denver’s co-WR1 this season while leading the Broncos in targets and air yards, but he has a difficult matchup this week (along with Courtland Sutton). Kansas City has yielded the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, with none surpassing 80 yards. Wideouts have totaled just one touchdown against the Chiefs since Week 6. Franklin leads all receivers in designed targets (16) this year and will be a valuable fantasy WR rest of season, but he’s a bench candidate in Week 11.